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Is Flood Risk Capitalized into Real Estate Market Value? A Mahalanobis-Metric Matching Approach to the Housing Market in Gyeonggi, South Korea

Author

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  • Eunah Jung

    (Department of City and Regional Planning, College of Architecture, Art, and Planning, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA)

  • Heeyeun Yoon

    (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea
    Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Korea)

Abstract

In this study, we investigate how far away and for how long past flooding affected single-family housing values in Gyeonggi, South Korea. In order to empirically explore the geographic and temporal extent of the effects, we adopt two analytical methods: random-intercept multilevel modeling and Mahalanobis-metric matching modeling. The analytical results suggest that the geographic extent of the discount effect of a flooding disaster is within 300 m from an inundated area. Market values of housing located 0–100, 100–200, and 200–300 m from inundated areas were lower by 11.0%, 7.4%, and 6.3%, respectively, than counterparts in the control group. The effect lasted only for 12 months after the disaster and then disappeared. During the first month, 1–3 months, and 3–6 months after a flood, housing units in the disaster-influenced area (within 300 m of the inundated area) were worth, on average, 57.6%, 49.2%, and 45.9% less than control units, respectively. Also, within the following 6 months, the discount effects were reduced to 33.2%. On the other hand, the results showed no statistically significant effects on market values more than 12 months after the disaster. By providing insights into how people perceive and respond to natural hazards, this research provides practical lessons for establishing sustainable disaster management and urban resilience strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Eunah Jung & Heeyeun Yoon, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalized into Real Estate Market Value? A Mahalanobis-Metric Matching Approach to the Housing Market in Gyeonggi, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:11:p:4008-:d:180000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bello Musa Zango & Sanni Mohammed Lekan & Mohammed Jibrin Katun, 2020. "Conventional Methods in Housing Market Analysis: A Review of Literature," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 227-241, January.
    2. Małgorzata Dudzińska & Barbara Prus & Radosław Cellmer & Stanisław Bacior & Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Klimach & Agnieszka Trystuła, 2020. "The Impact of Flood Risk on the Activity of the Residential Land Market in a Polish Cultural Heritage Town," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Fengyun Liu & Honghao Ren & Chuanzhe Liu & Dejun Tan, 2022. "Formation of Financial Real Estate Risks and Spatial Interactions: Evidence from 35 Cities in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Elżbieta Jasińska & Edward Preweda, 2021. "Statistical Modelling of the Market Value of Dwellings, on the Example of the City of Kraków," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-25, August.

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