IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeeman/v91y2018icp203-228.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wildfire risk, salience & housing demand

Author

Listed:
  • McCoy, Shawn J.
  • Walsh, Randall P.

Abstract

In this paper we develop a parsimonious model that links underlying changes in location-specific risk perceptions to housing market dynamics. Given estimates of both the price and quantity effects induced by shocks to agents' beliefs, the model allows us to draw inferences about the underlying changes in risk perceptions that gave rise to observed housing market dynamics. We apply the model's predictions to an empirical analysis of the influence of severe wildfires on housing prices and sales rates in the Front Range of Colorado. Interpreted in the context of the model, our empirical results suggest that natural disasters lead to significant, but short-lived increases in risk perceptions.

Suggested Citation

  • McCoy, Shawn J. & Walsh, Randall P., 2018. "Wildfire risk, salience & housing demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 203-228.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:203-228
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2018.07.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0095069617305181
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeem.2018.07.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Loomis, John, 2004. "Do nearby forest fires cause a reduction in residential property values?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 149-157, November.
    2. Lucija Muehlenbachs & Elisheba Spiller & Christopher Timmins, 2015. "The Housing Market Impacts of Shale Gas Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3633-3659, December.
    3. Evan Herrnstadt & Richard L. Sweeney, 2017. "What Lies Beneath: Pipeline Awareness and Aversion," NBER Working Papers 23858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Geoffrey H. Donovan & Patricia A. Champ & David T. Butry, 2007. "Wildfire Risk and Housing Prices: A Case Study from Colorado Springs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(2), pages 217-233.
    5. Paul Frijters & Benno Torgler & Darshana Rajapaksa & Clevo Wilson & Shunsuke Managi & Vincent Hoang & Boon Lee, 2016. "Flood Risk Information, Actual Floods and Property Values: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92, pages 52-67, June.
    6. Chan, Sewin, 2001. "Spatial Lock-in: Do Falling House Prices Constrain Residential Mobility?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 567-586, May.
    7. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 255-269, June.
    8. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    9. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2012. "Salience Theory of Choice Under Risk," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1243-1285.
    10. Margaret Walls & Carolyn Kousky & Ziyan Chu, 2015. "Is What You See What You Get? The Value of Natural Landscape Views," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19.
    11. Owen Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Leverage and House-Price Dynamics in U.S. Cities," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 30(3), pages 498-514, Autumn.
    12. Naoi, Michio & Seko, Miki & Sumita, Kazuto, 2009. "Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 658-669, November.
    13. Jill J. McCluskey & Gordon C. Rausser, 2001. "Estimation of Perceived Risk and Its Effect on Property Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(1), pages 42-55.
    14. Austin Troy & Jeff Romm, 2004. "Assessing the price effects of flood hazard disclosure under the California natural hazard disclosure law (AB 1195)," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 137-162.
    15. Shafran, Aric P., 2008. "Risk externalities and the problem of wildfire risk," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 488-495, September.
    16. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Hallstrom, Daniel G. & Smith, V. Kerry, 2005. "Market responses to hurricanes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 541-561, November.
    18. Julia L. Hansen & Earl D. Benson & Daniel A. Hagen, 2006. "Environmental Hazards and Residential Property Values: Evidence from a Major Pipeline Event," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 82(4), pages 529-541.
    19. Bernknopf, Richard L. & Brookshire, David S. & Thayer, Mark A., 1990. "Earthquake and volcano hazard notices: An economic evaluation of changes in risk perceptions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 35-49, January.
    20. Mueller, Julie M. & Loomis, John B., 2008. "Spatial Dependence in Hedonic Property Models: Do Different Corrections For Spatial Dependence Result in Economically Significant Differences in Estimated Implicit Prices?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 1-20.
    21. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira & Warren Kriesel, 2013. "Forgetting the Flood? An Analysis of the Flood Risk Discount over Time," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(4), pages 577-596.
    22. Stetler, Kyle M. & Venn, Tyron J. & Calkin, David E., 2010. "The effects of wildfire and environmental amenities on property values in northwest Montana, USA," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2233-2243, September.
    23. Carolyn Kousky, 2010. "Learning from Extreme Events: Risk Perceptions after the Flood," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
    24. Justin Gallagher, 2014. "Learning about an Infrequent Event: Evidence from Flood Insurance Take-Up in the United States," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(3), pages 206-233, July.
    25. Henley, Andrew, 1998. "Residential Mobility, Housing Equity and the Labour Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 414-427, March.
    26. Jeremy C. Stein, 1995. "Prices and Trading Volume in the Housing Market: A Model with Down-Payment Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 379-406.
    27. Julie Mueller & John Loomis & Armando González-Cabán, 2009. "Do Repeated Wildfires Change Homebuyers’ Demand for Homes in High-Risk Areas? A Hedonic Analysis of the Short and Long-Term Effects of Repeated Wildfires on House Prices in Southern California," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 155-172, February.
    28. Jared Carbone & Daniel Hallstrom & V. Smith, 2006. "Can Natural Experiments Measure Behavioral Responses to Environmental Risks?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 273-297, March.
    29. Engelhardt, Gary V., 2003. "Nominal loss aversion, housing equity constraints, and household mobility: evidence from the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 171-195, January.
    30. Ted Gayer & James T. Hamilton & W. Kip Viscusi, 2002. "The Market Value of Reducing Cancer Risk: Hedonic Housing Prices with Changing Information," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(2), pages 266-289, October.
    31. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    32. Ajita Atreya & Susana Ferreira, 2015. "Seeing is Believing? Evidence from Property Prices in Inundated Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(5), pages 828-848, May.
    33. Shawn J. McCoy & Xiaoxi Zhao, 2018. "A City under Water: A Geospatial Analysis of Storm Damage, Changing Risk Perceptions, and Investment in Residential Housing," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(2), pages 301-330.
    34. Bin, Okmyung & Landry, Craig E., 2013. "Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 361-376.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shawn J. McCoy & Randall P. Walsh, 2014. "W.U.I. on Fire: Risk, Salience & Housing Demand," NBER Working Papers 20644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James R. Meldrum, 2016. "Floodplain Price Impacts by Property Type in Boulder County, Colorado: Condominiums Versus Standalone Properties," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(4), pages 725-750, August.
    3. Justin Contat & Caroline Hopkins & Luis Mejia & Matthew Suandi, 2023. "When Climate Meets Real Estate: A Survey of the Literature," FHFA Staff Working Papers 23-05, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    4. Abbie A. Rogers & Fiona L. Dempster & Jacob I. Hawkins & Robert J. Johnston & Peter C. Boxall & John Rolfe & Marit E. Kragt & Michael P. Burton & David J. Pannell, 2019. "Valuing non-market economic impacts from natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1131-1161, November.
    5. Tanner, Sophia & Garnache, Cloe, 2017. "The Cost of Wildfires in Heavily Urbanized Areas: A Hedonic Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259167, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan, 2019. "Valuing Seawall Protection in the Wake of Hurricane Ike," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 257-279, October.
    7. Ferreira, Susana & Liu, Haiyan & Brewer, Brady, 2018. "The housing market impacts of wastewater injection induced seismicity risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 251-269.
    8. Graff Zivin, Joshua & Liao, Yanjun & Panassié, Yann, 2023. "How hurricanes sweep up housing markets: Evidence from Florida," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    9. Beltrán, Allan & Maddison, David & Elliott, Robert, 2019. "The impact of flooding on property prices: A repeat-sales approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 62-86.
    10. Bin, Okmyung & Landry, Craig E., 2013. "Changes in implicit flood risk premiums: Empirical evidence from the housing market," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 361-376.
    11. Eunah Jung & Heeyeun Yoon, 2018. "Is Flood Risk Capitalized into Real Estate Market Value? A Mahalanobis-Metric Matching Approach to the Housing Market in Gyeonggi, South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    12. Mutlu, Asli & Roy, Debraj & Filatova, Tatiana, 2023. "Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    13. David Wolf & Kenji Takeuchi, 2022. "Who Gives a Dam? Capitalization of Flood Protection in Fukuoka, Japan," Discussion Papers 2203, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    14. Yong Tu & Seow Ong & Ying Han, 2009. "Turnovers and Housing Price Dynamics: Evidence from Singapore Condominium Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 254-274, April.
    15. Tanner, S., 2018. "Burning down the house: the cost of wildfires in heavily urbanized areas," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275955, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    17. Yaoxuan Huang & Tsz Leung Yip & Cong Liang, 2020. "Risk Perception and Property Value: Evidence from Tianjin Port Explosion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, February.
    18. Matthew Gibson & Jamie T. Mullins & Alison Hill, 2019. "Climate Risk and Beliefs: Evidence from New York Floodplains," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    19. Hyun, Dongwoo & Milcheva, Stanimira, 2018. "Spatial dependence in apartment transaction prices during boom and bust," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 36-45.
    20. Gary Engelhardt, 2001. "Nominal Loss Aversion, Housing Equity Constraints, and Household Mobility: Evidence from the United States," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 42, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:203-228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622870 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.