IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v13y2021i17p9871-d627931.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Fluctuation, Local Government Bond Risk and Risk-Taking of City Commercial Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Changjun Zheng

    (School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

  • Shiying Chen

    (School of Management, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
    Department of Business Administration, Jiangxi College of Foreign Studies, Nanchang 330099, China)

  • Zhenhuan Dong

    (Department of Business Administration, Jiangxi College of Foreign Studies, Nanchang 330099, China)

Abstract

Countercyclical fiscal regulation can mitigate economic risk, but this is bound to increase the scale of local government debt during an economic downturn, and then spread risk to the banking sector, forming potential financial instability factors. We extracted the three most important variables in this process: economic fluctuation, local debt risk and bank risk-taking to build an econometric model and found that: (1) both economic fluctuations and local government bond risks have a significant impact on bank risk-taking, which is negatively correlated with local economic growth, while the increase of local government bond risks tends to increase bank risk-taking in the long run; (2) the impact of local government debt risk significantly increases the loans of city commercial banks flowing into the construction industry. Therefore, the impact of local government bond risk on city commercial banks is concentrated in the impact on their construction loans. This study has an important reference value for timely and moderate countercyclical regulation, preventing local debt risk from spreading to banks, constructing a sustainable local government−bank ecology, and promoting sustainable economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Changjun Zheng & Shiying Chen & Zhenhuan Dong, 2021. "Economic Fluctuation, Local Government Bond Risk and Risk-Taking of City Commercial Banks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-26, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9871-:d:627931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9871/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/17/9871/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davide Eltrudis & Patrizio Monfardini, 2020. "Are Central Government Rules Okay? Assessing the Hidden Costs of Centralised Discipline for Municipal Borrowing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Sapienza, Paola, 2004. "The effects of government ownership on bank lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 357-384, May.
    3. Carlos A Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2014. "The Road to Redemption: Policy Response to Crises in Latin America," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 526-568, November.
    4. Rafael Repullo & Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Mitigating the pro-cyclicality of Basel II [Bank loan loss provisions: a re-examination of capital management, earnings management and signalling effects]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 659-702.
    5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    6. Blum, Jurg & Hellwig, Martin, 1995. "The macroeconomic implications of capital adequacy requirements for banks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 739-749, April.
    7. Segev, Nimrod, 2020. "Identifying the risk-Taking channel of monetary transmission and the connection to economic activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    10. Spyros Spyrou & Emilios Galariotis & Panagiota Makrichoriti, 2016. "Sovereign CDS Spread Determinants and Spill-Over Effects," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 3606062, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    13. Ely, Regis A. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Teixeira, Anderson M., 2021. "The transmission mechanisms of macroprudential policies on bank risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 598-630.
    14. Jayce L. Farmer & Andres J. Rodriguez Lombeida, 2021. "How State Interventions affect Municipalities Taking the Lead in Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    15. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    16. Dinc, I. Serdar, 2005. "Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 453-479, August.
    17. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Systemic risk, sovereign yields and bank exposures in the euro crisis [Real effects of the sovereign debt crises in Europe: evidence from syndicated loans]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 203-251.
    18. Anderson, Ronald C. & Fraser, Donald R., 2000. "Corporate control, bank risk taking, and the health of the banking industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1383-1398, August.
    19. Xiaofeng Hui & Aoran Zhang, 2020. "Construction and Empirical Research on the Dynamic Provisioning Model of China’s Banking Sector under the Macro-Prudential Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-26, October.
    20. Angeloni, Ignazio & Faia, Ester & Lo Duca, Marco, 2015. "Monetary policy and risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 285-307.
    21. Hussam Musa & Viacheslav Natorin & Zdenka Musova & Pavol Durana, 2020. "Comparison of the efficiency measurement of the conventional and Islamic banks," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(1), pages 29-58, March.
    22. Bui, Tung Duy & Bui, Hoai Thi Mai, 2020. "Threshold effect of economic openness on bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 790-803.
    23. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2012. "The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 349-366.
    24. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    25. Bai, Haifeng & Ba, Shusong & Huang, Wenli & Hu, Wentao, 2020. "Expected government support and bank risk-taking: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    26. Mustafa Edwin Nasution & Imam Wahyudi, 2017. "Government fiscal policy impact analysis in infrastructure sector and education sector to improve public welfare," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 51-65, April.
    27. Liaqat, Zara, 2019. "Does government debt crowd out capital formation? A dynamic approach using panel VAR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 86-90.
    28. Treisman, Daniel, 2000. "Decentralization and Inflation: Commitment, Collective Action, or Continuity?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(4), pages 837-857, December.
    29. Hussam Musa & Zdenka Musova & Viacheslav Natorin & George Lazaroiu & Martin Boda, 2021. "Comparison of factors influencing liquidity of European Islamic and conventional banks," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 375-398, June.
    30. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    31. Cardani, Roberta & Menna, Lorenzo & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "The Optimal Policy Mix To Achieve Public Debt Consolidation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 113-129, January.
    32. Zhang, Xing & Li, Fengchao & Ortiz, Jaime, 2021. "Internal risk governance and external capital regulation affecting bank risk-taking and performance: Evidence from P.R. China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 276-292.
    33. Alessandrini, Pietro & Calcagnini, Giorgio & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2008. "Asset restructuring strategies in bank acquisitions: Does distance between dealing partners matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 699-713, May.
    34. Xing Zhang & Fengchao Li & Zhen Li & Yingying Xu, 2018. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Cycle, and Bank Risk-Taking," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-18, October.
    35. Vasiliki Makri, 2016. "Towards an Investigation of Credit Risk Determinants in Eurozone Countries," Journal of Accounting and Management Information Systems, Faculty of Accounting and Management Information Systems, The Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 27-57, March.
    36. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    37. Pathan, Shams & Haq, Mamiza & Faff, Robert & Seymour, Trent, 2021. "Institutional investor horizon and bank risk-taking," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    38. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:78:p:203-251 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Lozano-Vivas, Ana & Papadimitri, Panagiota & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2020. "Macroprudential policies, corporate governance and bank risk: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 126-142.
    40. Mustafa Edwin Nasution & Imam Wahyudi, 2017. "Government fiscal policy impact analysis in infrastructure sector and education sector to improve public welfare," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 51-65.
    41. Wu, Ji & Li, Huimin & Zheng, Dazhi & Liu, Xiaoyan, 2021. "Economic uncertainty or financial uncertainty? An empirical analysis of bank risk-taking in Asian emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    42. Ye, Zhen & Zhang, Fangzhu & Coffman, D’Maris & Xia, Senmao & Wang, Zhifeng & Zhu, Zhonghua, 2022. "China’s urban construction investment bond: Contextualising a financial tool for local government," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    43. Dewally, Michaël & Shao, Yingying, 2013. "Leverage, wholesale funding and national risk attitude," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 179-195.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haiyun Ma & Deshuai Hou, 2023. "Local Government Debt and Corporate Maturity Mismatch between Investment and Financing: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Inekwe, 2018. "Financial crises and the extreme bounds of predictors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2047-2067, December.
    2. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    3. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    4. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nurliyana Mohd Basri & Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Noorasiah Sulaiman, 2020. "The Effects of Factors of Production Shocks on Labor Productivity: New Evidence Using Panel VAR Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-23, October.
    6. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    7. Beni Kouevi-Gath & Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Laurent Weill, 2021. "Do banking crises improve democracy?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 413-446, March.
    8. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    9. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    10. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    11. Carlos A. Arango & Oscar M. Valencia, 2015. "Macro-Prudential Policy under Moral Hazard and Financial Fragility," Borradores de Economia 878, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Chung‐Hua Shen & Hsing‐Hua Hsu, 2022. "The determinants of Asian banking crises—Application of the panel threshold logit model," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 248-277, March.
    13. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    14. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "A vine-copula conditional value-at-risk approach to systemic sovereign debt risk for the financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 98-123.
    15. Marc Hayford & Anastasios Malliaris, 2010. "Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007--09: An Overview of Theories and Policies," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 279-286, January.
    16. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2015. "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 5-17, June.
    17. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano & Ricardo Reis & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "ESBies: safety in the tranches," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 175-219.
    18. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    19. Rémi Bazillier & Jérôme Hericourt, 2017. "The Circular Relationship Between Inequality, Leverage, And Financial Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 463-496, April.
    20. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:13:y:2021:i:17:p:9871-:d:627931. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.