IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i18p7817-d417223.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Laborda

    (Department of Business Administration, University Carlos III, 28903 Madrid, Spain)

  • María José Moral

    (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), 28040 Madrid, Spain)

Abstract

This study presents a methodology for forecasting the medium– and long–term real revenues of the automotive post–sales service sectors, assuming the automobile industry is nowadays undergoing a deep process of transformation. There are several conditioning factors, usage as well as environmental reasons, that makes past times an unreasonable guide for a future forecast. Firstly, we estimate, using regression models, the most important variables for the automobile sector that will affect the long–term forecasts of the automotive aftermarket’s revenues. Secondly, we apply participatory methods to quantify the impact of the new conditioning factors. This is a research tool used for the Spanish automotive aftermarket. Our results indicate how stakeholders’ perceptions modulate the forecasts for those economic sectors involved in a disrupted changing business model.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Laborda & María José Moral, 2020. "Automotive Aftermarket Forecast in a Changing World: The Stakeholders’ Perceptions Boost!," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-22, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7817-:d:417223
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7817/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/18/7817/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shengyi Gao & Patricia Mokhtarian & Robert Johnston, 2008. "Exploring the connections among job accessibility, employment, income, and auto ownership using structural equation modeling," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 42(2), pages 341-356, June.
    2. Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
    3. Mintesnot Woldeamanuel & Rita Cyganski & Angelika Schulz & Andreas Justen, 2009. "Variation of households ’ car ownership across time: application of a panel data model," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 371-387, July.
    4. Alan Greenspan & Darrel Cohen, 1999. "Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, And Sales," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 369-383, August.
    5. Kenneth B. Medlock & Ronald Soligo, 2002. "Car Ownership and Economic Development with Forecasts to the Year 2015," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(2), pages 163-188, May.
    6. Bhat, Chandra R. & Koppelman, Frank S., 1993. "An endogenous switching simultaneous equation system of employment, income, and car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 447-459, November.
    7. Wells, Peter & Nieuwenhuis, Paul, 2012. "Transition failure: Understanding continuity in the automotive industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1681-1692.
    8. Schafer, Andreas & Victor, David G., 2000. "The future mobility of the world population," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 171-205, April.
    9. Beck, Matthew J. & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2013. "Environmental attitudes and emissions charging: An example of policy implications for vehicle choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 171-182.
    10. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
    11. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    12. Oliveira, Beatriz Brito & Carravilla, Maria Antónia & Oliveira, José Fernando, 2017. "Fleet and revenue management in car rental companies: A literature review and an integrated conceptual framework," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 11-26.
    13. Laborda, Juan & Moral, María J., 2019. "Scrappage by age: Cash for Clunkers matters!," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 488-504.
    14. Gilbert, Carol C. S., 1992. "A duration model of automobile ownership," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 97-114, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    2. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2016. "Analysis of vehicle ownership evolution in Montreal, Canada using pseudo panel analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 531-548, May.
    3. Van Acker, Veronique & Witlox, Frank, 2010. "Car ownership as a mediating variable in car travel behaviour research using a structural equation modelling approach to identify its dual relationship," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 65-74.
    4. Kim, Sung Hoo & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2018. "Taste heterogeneity as an alternative form of endogeneity bias: Investigating the attitude-moderated effects of built environment and socio-demographics on vehicle ownership using latent class modelin," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 130-150.
    5. Quaglione, Davide & Cassetta, Ernesto & Crociata, Alessandro & Marra, Alessandro & Sarra, Alessandro, 2019. "An assessment of the role of cultural capital on sustainable mobility behaviours: Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 24-34.
    6. Matas, Anna & Raymond, José-Luis & Roig, José-Luis, 2009. "Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 607-617, July.
    7. Jie Song & Ruoniu Wang, 2017. "Measuring the Spatial Dimension of Automobile Ownership and Its Associations with Household Characteristics and Land Use Patterns: A Case Study in Three Counties, South Florida (USA)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-19, April.
    8. Yagi, Michiyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "Demographic determinants of car ownership in Japan," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 37-53.
    9. Sabreena Anowar & Shamsunnahar Yasmin & Naveen Eluru & Luis Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Analyzing car ownership in Quebec City: a comparison of traditional and latent class ordered and unordered models," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1013-1039, September.
    10. Abu Oakil & Dick Ettema & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 889-904, July.
    11. Zhao, Pengjun & Bai, Yu, 2019. "The gap between and determinants of growth in car ownership in urban and rural areas of China: A longitudinal data case study," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-1.
    12. Zhou, Fan & Zheng, Zuduo & Whitehead, Jake & Perrons, Robert K. & Washington, Simon & Page, Lionel, 2020. "Examining the impact of car-sharing on private vehicle ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 322-341.
    13. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.
    14. Seya, Hajime & Nakamichi, Kumiko & Yamagata, Yoshiki, 2016. "The residential parking rent price elasticity of car ownership in Japan," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 123-134.
    15. Nayum, Alim & Klöckner, Christian A. & Prugsamatz, Sunita, 2013. "Influences of car type class and carbon dioxide emission levels on purchases of new cars: A retrospective analysis of car purchases in Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 96-108.
    16. Yang, Hongtai & Zhai, Guocong & Liu, Xiaohan & Yang, Linchuan & Liu, Yugang & Yuan, Quan, 2022. "Determinants of city-level private car ownership: Effect of vehicle regulation policies and the relative price," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 40-48.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0385 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Amoh-Gyimah, Richard & Aidoo, Eric Nimako, 2013. "Mode of transport to work by government employees in the Kumasi metropolis, Ghana," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 35-43.
    19. Nazari, Fatemeh & Mohammadian, Abolfazl (Kouros), 2023. "Modeling vehicle-miles of travel accounting for latent heterogeneity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 45-53.
    20. Souche, Stéphanie, 2010. "Measuring the structural determinants of urban travel demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 127-134, May.
    21. Delbosc, Alexa, 2013. "Household composition and within-household car saturation in Melbourne," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-100.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:18:p:7817-:d:417223. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.