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Modelling car ownership in Great Britain

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  • Whelan, Gerard
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    Abstract

    Over the last 50 years there has been a tenfold increase in the number of cars in Great Britain, rising from 2.6 million vehicles in 1951 to 27 million vehicles in 2001. Over the same period there has been a steady reduction in the proportion of households without access to a car and a steady increase in the proportion of households with two or more cars. If such trends continue, it is likely that there will be increased energy consumption, increased problems with traffic congestion and atmospheric pollution, and reductions to the financial viability of public transport. Given the importance of car ownership to transport and land-use planning and its relationship with energy consumption, the environment and health, it is the objective of this research to develop econometric models of household car ownership and apply the models to generate forecasts across Britain to the year 2031. To achieve this objective, the research develops discrete choice models of the household's decision to own zero, one, two or three or more vehicles as a function of market saturation, licence holding, household income and structure, household employment, company car provision, and purchase and use costs. The models are validated to data from the 2001 Census and are used to develop a range of forecasts taking into account changes to the socio-demographic characteristics of Britain.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

    Volume (Year): 41 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 205-219

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:41:y:2007:i:3:p:205-219

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    1. Brownston, David & Bunch, David S. & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Joint mixed logit models of stated and revealed preferences for alternative-fuel vehicles," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7rf7s3nx, University of California Transportation Center.
    2. Jong, Gerard De, 1996. "A disaggregate model system of vehicle holding duration, type choice and use," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 263-276, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Copenhagen Economics, 2010. "Company Car Taxation," Taxation Papers 22, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    2. Lovelace, R. & Beck, S.B.M. & Watson, M. & Wild, A., 2011. "Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 2075-2087, April.
    3. Abu Oakil & Dick Ettema & Theo Arentze & Harry Timmermans, 2014. "Changing household car ownership level and life cycle events: an action in anticipation or an action on occurrence," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 889-904, July.
    4. Bjerkan, Kristin Ystmark & Nordtømme, Marianne Elvsaas, 2014. "Car use in the leisure lives of adolescents. Does household structure matter?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    5. Delbosc, Alexa, 2013. "Household composition and within-household car saturation in Melbourne," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-100.
    6. Huang, Biao, 2007. "Random Utility Pseudo Panel Model and Application on Car Ownership Forecast," MPRA Paper 7778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.
    8. Matas, Anna & Raymond, José-Luis & Roig, José-Luis, 2009. "Car ownership and access to jobs in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 607-617, July.
    9. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    10. Nolan Ritter & Colin Vance, 2012. "Do Fewer People Mean Fewer Cars? – Population Decline and Car Ownership in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0385, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Dargay, Joyce & Hanly, Mark, 2007. "Volatility of car ownership, commuting mode and time in the UK," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 934-948, December.
    12. John Eakins, 2013. "The Determinants of Household Car Ownership: Empirical Evidence from the Irish Household Budget Survey," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 144, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    13. Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Tsuyoshi Hatori & David Watling, 2014. "Dynamic process model of mass effects on travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 279-304, March.
    14. Matas, Anna & Raymond, Josep-LLuis, 2008. "Changes in the structure of car ownership in Spain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 187-202, January.
    15. Ritter, Nolan & Vance, Colin, 2013. "Do fewer people mean fewer cars? Population decline and car ownership in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-85.
    16. Baltas, George & Saridakis, Charalampos, 2013. "An empirical investigation of the impact of behavioural and psychographic consumer characteristics on car preferences: An integrated model of car type choice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 92-110.
    17. Chiou, Yu-Chiun & Wen, Chieh-Hua & Tsai, Shih-Hsun & Wang, Wei-Ying, 2009. "Integrated modeling of car/motorcycle ownership, type and usage for estimating energy consumption and emissions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 665-684, August.

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