IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v11y2019i1p182-d194294.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Joint Determination of Residential Relocation and Commuting: A Forecasting Experiment for Sustainable Land Use and Transportation Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Jaewon Lim

    (School of Public Policy and Leadership, Greenspun College of Urban Affairs, University of Nevada Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89154, USA)

  • Jae Hong Kim

    (Department of Urban Planning and Public Policy, School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, 206E Social Ecology I, Irvine, CA 92697, USA)

Abstract

This article applies matrix forecasting methods to the investigation of residential relocation and commuting patterns that are highly interconnected, but often analyzed separately. More specifically, using recent inter-county migration and commuting pattern data for the three largest metropolitan areas in California, it examines how residential relocation and commuting are associated in the regions and whether a unified framework—in which household relocation and commuting flow matrices are jointly determined—can improve the forecasting performance. The relocation–commuting association is found to differ substantially by region, suggesting the importance of region-specific factors in shaping the interrelationship. Joint forecasting, however, can attain a higher accuracy compared to the two separate projections, although the forecasting performance varies based on the method employed.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaewon Lim & Jae Hong Kim, 2019. "Joint Determination of Residential Relocation and Commuting: A Forecasting Experiment for Sustainable Land Use and Transportation Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:182-:d:194294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/1/182/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/11/1/182/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Melissa Bjelland & Bruce Fallick & John Haltiwanger & Erika McEntarfer, 2011. "Employer-to-Employer Flows in the United States: Estimates Using Linked Employer-Employee Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 493-505, October.
    2. Ning Chai & Mack Joong Choi, 2017. "Migrant workers’ choices of resettlements in the redevelopment of urban villages in China: the case of Beijing," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 282-299, September.
    3. Louis de Mesnard, 2000. "Bicausative matrices to measure structural change: Are they a good tool?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(3), pages 421-449.
    4. Jan Rouwendal, 2004. "Search Theory and Commuting Behavior," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 391-418, September.
    5. David Levinson & Ajay Kumar, 1994. "The Rational Locator: Why Travel Times Have Remained Stable," Working Papers 199402, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    6. María Hierro, 2009. "Modelling the dynamics of internal migration flows in Spain," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(3), pages 683-692, August.
    7. Jun Wan & Jae Hong Kim & Geoffrey J D Hewings, 2013. "Inspecting Regional Economic Structural Changes through Linking Occupations and Industries," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(3), pages 614-633, March.
    8. Dong Lin & Andrew Allan & Jianqiang Cui, 2017. "Sub-centres, socio-economic characteristics and commuting: a case study and its implications," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 147-171, May.
    9. Dacko, Scott G. & Spalteholz, Carolin, 2014. "Upgrading the city: Enabling intermodal travel behaviour," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 222-235.
    10. Clark, William A. V. & Huang, Youqin & Withers, Suzanne, 2003. "Does commuting distance matter?: Commuting tolerance and residential change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 199-221, March.
    11. Xiang Zhou & Xiaohong Chen & Tianran Zhang, 2016. "Impact of Megacity Jobs-Housing Spatial Mismatch on Commuting Behaviors: A Case Study on Central Districts of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, January.
    12. Benjamin Lipstein, 1968. "Test Marketing: A Perturbation in the Market Place," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(8), pages 437-448, April.
    13. Zax, Jeffrey S & Kain, John F, 1996. "Moving to the Suburbs: Do Relocating Companies Leave Their Black Employees Behind?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(3), pages 472-504, July.
    14. Patricia L. Mokhtarian, 2002. "Telecommunications and Travel: The Case for Complementarity," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 6(2), pages 43-57, April.
    15. Zax, Jeffrey S, 1991. "The Substitution between Moves and Quits," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1510-1521, November.
    16. Jae Hong Kim, 2014. "Residential and job mobility: Interregional variation and their interplay in US metropolitan areas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(13), pages 2863-2879, October.
    17. Rongwei Wu & Degang Yang & Lu Zhang & Jinwei Huo, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns and Determinants of Inter-Provincial Migration in China 1995–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    18. Jae Kim & Geoffrey Hewings, 2013. "Land use regulation and intraregional population–employment interaction," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 51(3), pages 671-693, December.
    19. Cody Henderson & Henry Hyatt, 2012. "Estimation of Job-to-Job Flow Rates under Partially Missing Geography," Working Papers 12-29, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    20. Yap, Lorene Y. L., 1977. "The attraction of cities : A review of the migration literature," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 239-264, September.
    21. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2012. "Job-to-Job Flows in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 580-583, May.
    22. AMOS GOLAN & JULIA LANE & ERIKA McENTARFER, 2007. "The Dynamics of Worker Reallocation within and across Industries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(293), pages 1-20, February.
    23. Lee, Jung Hoon & Hancock, Marguerite Gong & Hu, Mei-Chih, 2014. "Towards an effective framework for building smart cities: Lessons from Seoul and San Francisco," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 80-99.
    24. de Graaff, Thomas & Rietveld, Piet, 2007. "Substitution between working at home and out-of-home: The role of ICT and commuting costs," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 142-160, February.
    25. Roberto Basile & Jaewon Lim, 2017. "Nonlinearities in Interregional Migration Behavior," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(6), pages 563-589, November.
    26. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    27. Kan, Kamhon, 2003. "Residential mobility and job changes under uncertainty," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 566-586, November.
    28. Jaewon Lim, 2011. "Does wage differential driven migration continue to exist? Tests on the role of regional economic structure in wage differential driven migration," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 213-233, August.
    29. Dong Lin & Andrew Allan & Jianqiang Cui, 2015. "The impacts of urban spatial structure and socio-economic factors on patterns of commuting: a review," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 238-255, July.
    30. Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp & Jos van Ommeren, 2000. "Job mobility, residential mobility and commuting: A theoretical analysis using search theory," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(2), pages 213-232.
    31. Jos van Ommeren & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp & Jos van Ommeren & Piet Rietveld & Peter Nijkamp, 2004. "Job Moving, Residential Moving, and Commuting: A Search Perspective," Chapters, in: Location, Travel and Information Technology, chapter 11, pages 223-246, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    32. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    33. Peter A. Rogerson & David A. Plane, 1984. "Modeling Temporal Change In Flow Matrices," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 147-164, January.
    34. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    35. Kan, Kamhon, 2002. "Residential mobility with job location uncertainty," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-523, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oshan, Taylor M., 2020. "Potential and pitfalls of big transport data for spatial interaction models of urban mobility," OSF Preprints gwumt, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jae Hong Kim, 2014. "Residential and job mobility: Interregional variation and their interplay in US metropolitan areas," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(13), pages 2863-2879, October.
    2. Kronenberg, Kristin & Carree, Martin, 2010. "Job and residential mobility in the Netherlands: the influence of human capital, household composition and location," MPRA Paper 25840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kristin Kronenberg & Martin Carree, 2012. "On the Move: Determinants of Job and Residential Mobility in Different Sectors," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(16), pages 3679-3698, December.
    4. Andrew Coleman & Guanyu Zheng, 2020. "Job-to-job transitions and the regional job ladder," Working Papers 2020/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    5. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2015. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage," NBER Working Papers 21235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Lorenz, Olga & Goerke, Laszlo, 2015. "Commuting and Sickness Absence," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113173, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Mette Deding & Trine Filges & Jos Van Ommeren, 2009. "Spatial Mobility And Commuting: The Case Of Two‐Earner Households," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 113-147, February.
    8. Gutiérrez-i-Puigarnau, Eva & van Ommeren, Jos N., 2010. "Labour supply and commuting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 82-89, July.
    9. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2019. "Locus of control and internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    10. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & John Haltiwanger, 2014. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Large and Small Employers," 2014 Meeting Papers 735, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Anette Haas & Malte Reichelt, 2014. "Would you commute further for extra money? Region specific income effects on commuting distances," ERSA conference papers ersa14p1320, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Caliendo, Marco & Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. & Hennecke, Juliane & Uhlendorff, Arne, 2019. "Locus of control and internal migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Eva Gutierrez-i-Puigarnau & Jos van Ommeren, 2009. "Labour Supply and Commuting: Implications for Optimal Road Taxes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-008/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Kan, Kamhon, 2003. "Residential mobility and job changes under uncertainty," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 566-586, November.
    15. Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen & Anne-Marie Séguin & Marius Thériault & Christophe Claramunt, 2009. "Modeling propensity to move after job change using event history analysis and temporal GIS," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 37-65, March.
    16. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer & Kevin McKinney & Stephen Tibbets & Doug Walton, 2014. "JOB-TO-JOB (J2J) Flows: New Labor Market Statistics From Linked Employer-Employee Data," Working Papers 14-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    17. Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2012. "Job-to-Job Flows and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 12-04, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    18. repec:dgr:uvatin:20090008 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jennifer Roberts & Karl Taylor, 2017. "Intra-household commuting choices and local labour markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 734-757.
    20. Etienne Lalé, 2019. "Search and Multiple Jobholding," Upjohn Working Papers 19-305, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    21. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio, 2019. "Forecasting and Trading Monetary Policy Effects on the Riskless Yield Curve with Regime Switching Nelson†Siegel Models," Working Papers 639, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:182-:d:194294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.