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The Contribution of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals

Author

Listed:
  • Ajay Gambhir

    (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Tamaryn Napp

    (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Adam Hawkes

    (Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, UK)

  • Lena Höglund-Isaksson

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria)

  • Wilfried Winiwarter

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria)

  • Pallav Purohit

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria)

  • Fabian Wagner

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A-2361, Austria
    Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA)

  • Dan Bernie

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Jason Lowe

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

Abstract

This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed at meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO 2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors, coupled with a model covering non-CO 2 emissions (GAINS), using the latest global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that in general non-CO 2 mitigation measures are less costly than CO 2 mitigation measures, with the majority of their abatement potential achievable at US2005$100/tCO 2 e or less throughout the 21st century (compared to a marginal CO 2 mitigation cost which is already greater than this by 2030 in the most stringent mitigation scenario). As a result, the total cumulative discounted cost over the period 2010–2100 (at a 5% discount rate) of limiting global average temperature change to 2.5 °C by 2100 is $48 trillion (about 1.6% of cumulative discounted GDP over the period 2010–2100) if only CO 2 from the fossil fuel and industrial sectors is targeted, whereas the cost falls to $17 trillion (0.6% of GDP) by including non-CO 2 GHG mitigation in the portfolio of options—a cost reduction of about 65%. The criticality of non-CO 2 mitigation recommends further research, given its relatively less well-explored nature when compared to CO 2 mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajay Gambhir & Tamaryn Napp & Adam Hawkes & Lena Höglund-Isaksson & Wilfried Winiwarter & Pallav Purohit & Fabian Wagner & Dan Bernie & Jason Lowe, 2017. "The Contribution of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:5:p:602-:d:97289
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