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Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework

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  • D.P. van Vuuren, B. Eickhout, P.L. Lucas and M.G.J. den Elzen

Abstract

This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for stabilisation of greenhouse gas radiative forcing in 2150 at levels from 3.7 to 5.3 W/m2. At the moment, non-CO2 gasses (methane, nitrous oxide, PFCs, HFCs and SF6) contribute to about a quarter of the global emissions. The analysis shows that including these non-CO2 gases in mitigation analysis is crucial in formulating a cost-effective response. For stabilisation at 4.5 W/m2, a multi-gas approach leads to 40% lower costs than an approach that would focus at CO2only. Within the assumptions used in this study, the non-CO2 gasses contribution to total reduction is very large under less stringent targets (up to 60%), but declines under stringent targets. While stabilising at 3.7 W/m2 obviously leads to larger environmental benefits than the 4.5 W/m2 case (temperature increase in 2100 are 1.9 and 2.3oC, respectively), the costs of the lower target are higher (0.80% and 0.34% of GDP in 2100, respectively). Improving knowledge on how future reduction potential for non-CO2 gasses could develop is shown to be a crucial research question.

Suggested Citation

  • D.P. van Vuuren, B. Eickhout, P.L. Lucas and M.G.J. den Elzen, 2006. "Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 201-234.
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2006se_weyant-a10
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    1. Mathijs Harmsen & Detlef Vuuren & Maarten Berg & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Adriana Marcucci & Drew Shindell & Michiel Schaeffer, 2015. "How well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO 2 radiative forcing?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(4), pages 565-582, December.
    2. Ajay Gambhir & Tamaryn Napp & Adam Hawkes & Lena Höglund-Isaksson & Wilfried Winiwarter & Pallav Purohit & Fabian Wagner & Dan Bernie & Jason Lowe, 2017. "The Contribution of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Richard S. J. Tol, 2007. "Climate Policy Versus Development Aid," Papers WP221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Abeysekara, Walimuni Chamindri Sewanka Mendis & Siriwardana, Mahinda & Meng, Samuel, 2023. "Economic consequences of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector of South Asia: A case study of Sri Lanka," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 435-450.
    5. Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Moorhead, Jerry E. & Heflin, Kevin R. & Brauer, David K. & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2019. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 13-24.
    6. Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Ayami Hayashi & Takashi Homma & Junichiro Oda & Kenichi Wada & Miyuki Nagashima & Kohko Tokushige & Toshimasa Tomoda, 2012. "Consistent assessments of pathways toward sustainable development and climate stabilization," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(4), pages 231-244, November.
    7. Muhammad Rizwan Shahid & Abdul Wakeel & Wajid Ishaque & Samia Ali & Kamran Baksh Soomro & Muhammad Awais, 2021. "Optimizing different adaptive strategies by using crop growth modeling under IPCC climate change scenarios for sustainable wheat production," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11310-11334, August.
    8. Jérôme Hilaire & Jan C. Minx & Max W. Callaghan & Jae Edmonds & Gunnar Luderer & Gregory F. Nemet & Joeri Rogelj & Maria Mar Zamora, 2019. "Negative emissions and international climate goals—learning from and about mitigation scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 157(2), pages 189-219, November.
    9. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    10. A. Reisinger & P. Havlik & K. Riahi & O. Vliet & M. Obersteiner & M. Herrero, 2013. "Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 677-690, April.
    11. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    12. Hiroki Iwata & Keisuke Okada, 2014. "Greenhouse gas emissions and the role of the Kyoto Protocol," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 16(4), pages 325-342, October.
    13. Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "Biased Policy Advice from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(7), pages 929-936, December.
    14. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2019. "Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for a hydro-dominated power system via stochastic optimization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 584-598.
    15. Katherine Romanak & Mathias Fridahl & Tim Dixon, 2021. "Attitudes on Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as a Mitigation Technology within the UNFCCC," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-16, January.
    16. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    17. T. Kober & B. C. C. Van Der Zwaan & H. Rösler, 2014. "Emission Certificate Trade And Costs Under Regional Burden-Sharing Regimes For A 2°C Climate Change Control Target," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-32.
    18. Andersen, Lykke E. & Breisinger, Clemens & Jemio, Luis Carlos & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Verner, Dorte & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2016. "Climate change impacts and household resilience: Prospects for 2050 in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru," Food policy reports 978-0-89629-581-0, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    20. Katherine Calvin & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & Jae Edmonds & Page Kyle & Patrick Luckow & Allison Thomson, 2013. "Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 545-560, April.
    21. Rose, Steven K. & Ahammad, Helal & Eickhout, Bas & Fisher, Brian & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Rao, Shilpa & Riahi, Keywan & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2012. "Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 365-380.
    22. Adolf Stroombergen & Andy Reisinger, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact on New Zealand of Alternative GHG Exchange Rate Metrics," EcoMod2012 4140, EcoMod.
    23. Rautiainen, Aapo & Lintunen, Jussi, 2017. "Social Cost of Forcing: A Basis for Pricing All Forcing Agents," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 42-51.
    24. Samuel Carrara & Giacomo Marangoni, 2013. "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Modeling with Marginal Abatement Cost Curves: Technical Change, Emission Scenarios and Policy Costs," Working Papers 2013.110, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    25. Kuik, Onno & Brander, Luke & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1395-1403, April.

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