IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i6p2964-2975.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen

Author

Listed:
  • Macintosh, Andrew

Abstract

The object of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 was to reach an agreement on a new international legal architecture for addressing anthropogenic climate change post-2012. It failed in this endeavour, producing a political agreement in the form of the Copenhagen Accord. The Accord sets an ambitious goal of holding the increase in the global average surface temperature to below 2 °C. This paper describes 45 CO2-only mitigation scenarios that provide an indication of what would need to be done to stay within the 2 °C limit if the international climate negotiations stay on their current path. The results suggest that if developed countries adopt a combined target for 2020 of =5%/yr, and possibly >=10%/yr, post-2030 (after a decade transitional period) in order to keep warming to 2 °C. If aggressive abatement commitments for 2020 are not forthcoming from all the major emitting countries, the likelihood of warming being kept within the 2 °C limit is diminutive.

Suggested Citation

  • Macintosh, Andrew, 2010. "Keeping warming within the 2 °C limit after Copenhagen," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2964-2975, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:2964-2975
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(10)00059-5
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross Garnaut & Stephen Howes & Frank Jotzo & Peter Sheehan, 2008. "Emissions in the Platinum Age: the implications of rapid development for climate-change mitigation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(2), pages 377-401, Summer.
    2. Macintosh, Andrew & Wallace, Lailey, 2009. "International aviation emissions to 2025: Can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 264-273, January.
    3. H. Damon Matthews & Nathan P. Gillett & Peter A. Stott & Kirsten Zickfeld, 2009. "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7248), pages 829-832, June.
    4. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    5. Myles R. Allen & David J. Frame & Chris Huntingford & Chris D. Jones & Jason A. Lowe & Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen, 2009. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1163-1166, April.
    6. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    7. Emma Paulsson, 2009. "A review of the CDM literature: from fine-tuning to critical scrutiny?," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 63-80, February.
    8. Ribeiro, Suzana K & Kobayashi, Shigeki & Beuthe, Michel & Gasca, Jorge & Greene, David & Lee, David S. & Muromachi, Yasunori & Newton, Peter J. & Plotkin, Steven & Sperling, Daniel & Wit, Ron & Zhou, , 2007. "Transportation and its Infrastructure," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt98m5t1rv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    9. John P. Weyant, Francisco C. de la Chesnaye, and Geoff J. Blanford, 2006. "Overview of EMF-21: Multigas Mitigation and Climate Policy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-32.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Steven Smith & Philip Rasch, 2013. "The long-term policy context for solar radiation management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 487-497, December.
    3. Andreas Freytag & Leo Wangler, 2008. "Strategic Trade Policy als Response to Climate Change? The Political Economy of Climate Policy," Jena Economics Research Papers 2008-001, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    4. Tokimatsu, Koji & Yasuoka, Rieko & Nishio, Masahiro, 2017. "Global zero emissions scenarios: The role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1899-1906.
    5. Svetlana Maslyuk & Dinusha Dharmaratna, 2011. "Comparative analysis of the existing and proposed ETS," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Chicco, Gianfranco & Stephenson, Paule M., 2012. "Effectiveness of setting cumulative carbon dioxide emissions reduction targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-31.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ajay Gambhir & Tamaryn Napp & Adam Hawkes & Lena Höglund-Isaksson & Wilfried Winiwarter & Pallav Purohit & Fabian Wagner & Dan Bernie & Jason Lowe, 2017. "The Contribution of Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation to Achieving Long-Term Temperature Goals," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Chicco, Gianfranco & Stephenson, Paule M., 2012. "Effectiveness of setting cumulative carbon dioxide emissions reduction targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-31.
    3. Simon Levin & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "On the Coevolution of Economic and Ecological Systems," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 355-377, October.
    4. W. A. Brock & A. Xepapadeas, 2015. "Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems," Working Papers 2015.66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    6. Frederick Ploeg, 2021. "Carbon pricing under uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1122-1142, October.
    7. Oskar Lecuyer & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2013. "Assessing and ordering investments in polluting fossil-fueled and zero-carbon capital," CIRED Working Papers hal-00850680, HAL.
    8. Lorenzo Pellegrini & Murat Arsel & Gorka Muñoa & Guillem Rius-Taberner & Carlos Mena & Martí Orta-Martínez, 2024. "The atlas of unburnable oil for supply-side climate policies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Nicolas Taconet & Céline Guivarch & Antonin Pottier, 2019. "Social Cost of Carbon under stochastic tipping points: when does risk play a role?," Working Papers hal-02408904, HAL.
    10. Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Guy Meunier & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2013. "Should marginal abatement costs differ across sectors? The effect of low-carbon capital accumulation," Working Papers hal-00850682, HAL.
    11. Dietz, Simon & Venmans, Frank, 2019. "Cumulative carbon emissions and economic policy: In search of general principles," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 108-129.
    12. Rick van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting and Climate Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8441, CESifo.
    13. Olijslagers, Stan & van der Ploeg, Frederick & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2023. "On current and future carbon prices in a risky world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    14. Loïc Berger & Massimo Marinacci, 2020. "Model Uncertainty in Climate Change Economics: A Review and Proposed Framework for Future Research," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(3), pages 475-501, November.
    15. Ha, Yuejiao & Teng, Fei, 2013. "Midway toward the 2 degree target: Adequacy and fairness of the Cancún pledges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 856-865.
    16. Eichner, Thomas & Pethig, Ru¨diger, 2013. "Flattening the carbon extraction path in unilateral cost-effective action," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 185-201.
    17. Frank Jotzo, 2010. "Comparing the Copenhagen Emissions Targets," CCEP Working Papers 0110, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Bing Xue & Yong Geng & Katrin Müller & Chengpeng Lu & Wanxia Ren, 2014. "Understanding the Causality between Carbon Dioxide Emission, Fossil Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Developed Countries: An Empirical Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-9, February.
    19. Pranav P. Sharma & Xiao‐Dong Zhou, 2017. "Electrocatalytic conversion of carbon dioxide to fuels: a review on the interaction between CO2 and the liquid electrolyte," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), July.
    20. Ajay Gambhir & Laurent Drouet & David McCollum & Tamaryn Napp & Dan Bernie & Adam Hawkes & Oliver Fricko & Petr Havlik & Keywan Riahi & Valentina Bosetti & Jason Lowe, 2017. "Assessing the Feasibility of Global Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-31, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:2964-2975. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.