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The mechanics of a successful exchange rate peg: lessons for emerging markets

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  • Michael Dueker
  • Andreas M. Fischer

Abstract

To the surprise of many market watchers, Thailand’s exchange rate peg to the dollar collapsed in July 1997, leading to similar rounds of currency devaluations in other East Asian countries. This study seeks to determine whether there were identifiable contrasts in implementation between Thailand’s peg and a perennially successful peg—Austria’s peg to the Deutsche mark—that would have hinted at problems for Thailand prior to July 1997. The comparison suggests that Thailand was not sufficiently vigilant about keeping its inflation rate low in the early 1990s. By 1995, Thailand faced a situation where a tight monetary policy involving high domestic interest rates would not always have created disinflationary pressure, as high interest rates also tended to attract greater capital inflow to Thailand. In this environment, Thailand’s monetary policy became erratic and failed to maintain the exchange rate peg.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2001)
Issue (Month): May ()
Pages: 47-56

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2001:i:may:p:47-56:n:v.83no.5

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Thailand;

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References

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  1. Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," CEPR Discussion Papers 1944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2001. "Fixing for your life," MPRA Paper 13873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M., 1996. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-103, February.
  6. Hochreiter, Eduard & Winckler, Georg, 1995. "The advantages of tying Austria's hands: The success of the hard currency strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 83-111, March.
  7. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.
  8. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2000. "Austria's Hard-Currency Policy: The Mechanics of Successful Exchange-Rate Peg," CEPR Discussion Papers 2478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. von Hagen, J, 1995. "Inflation and Monetary Targeting in Germany," Papers 03, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
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Cited by:
  1. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 431-450.
  3. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Nawazish Mirza, 2013. "Choice of Anchor Currencies and Dynamic Preferences for Exchange Rate Pegging in Asia," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 37-49, July-Dec.

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