Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Do Central Bank Forecast Errors Contribute to the Missing of Inflation Targets? The Case of the Czech Republic

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

This paper is primarily concerned with assessing the bias of the CNB’s predictions in relation to undershooting of the inflation target. We conclude that the inflation prediction error has decreased over time. We further point out that GDP growth and interest rates were, respectively, above and below the forecast most of the time, even in a situation of systematic undershooting of the target. Thus, the undershooting cannot be explained with the help of standard demand mechanisms. Positive supply impulses were admittedly underestimated in the past. According to our findings, about half of the apparent target undershooting in 2003 was due to errors in the predictions of exogenous factors (foreign interest rates, GDP, and inflation). As follows from the distribution of the inflation prediction errors across separate price segments, overpredictions of inflation during most of the period under review were due to mistakes in the prediction of food prices and core CPI ex food, while prediction errors in energy prices mostly fostered convergence to the target. The prediction errors in regulated prices acted in both directions.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1142_1142_3__antal-hlavacek-horvath.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences in its journal Finance a uver - Czech Journal of Economics and Finance.

Volume (Year): 58 (2008)
Issue (Month): 09-10 (December)
Pages: 434-453

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:9-10:p:434-453

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague
Phone: +420 2 222112330
Fax: +420 2 22112304
Email:
Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: macroeconomics; monetary policy; inflation targeting; forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Zuzana Antonicova & Karel Musil & Lubos Ruzicka & Jan Vlcek, 2008. "Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts: A Historic Overview," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: Katerina Smidkova (ed.), Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB's Inflation Targets 1998-2007, chapter 7, pages 86-101 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  3. Juraj Antal & Michal Hlaváèek & Tomáš Holub, 2008. "Inflation Target Fulfillment in the Czech Republic in 1998–2007: Some Stylized Facts," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(09-10), pages 406-424, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Filip Novotny & Marie Rakova, 2010. "Assessment of Consensus Forecasts Accuracy: The Czech National Bank Perspective," Working Papers 2010/14, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Katarína Danišková & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2011. "Inflation Convergence and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the Czech Republic," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 099-115, August.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:9-10:p:434-453. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lenka Herrmannova).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.