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The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic
[Úspěšnost plánování státního rozpočtu ČR]

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  • Jiří Šindelář

Abstract

This paper deals with an ex post evaluation of the accuracy of state budget plans, in the case of the Czech Republic. We based our analysis on a two-step methodology consisting of plan-reality deviances and their significance tests. As such, it was found that although the deviances with some budget chapters are notable, only a limited number of them is statistically significant. These are connected to the adjusted budget plan, which exhibited not only two chapters with a systemic planning bias (operating costs, budget balance), but also lack of incremental improvement (increasing accuracy with shortening planning horizon). The paper further disseminates the influence of macroeconomic, political and institutional factors on the quality of budget planning. After statistical analysis, we come to the conclusion that only the unemployment rate shows significant effect, with all other factors being found, surprisingly, insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiří Šindelář, 2022. "The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic [Úspěšnost plánování státního rozpočtu ČR]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(1), pages 35-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572:p:35-58
    DOI: 10.18267/j.cfuc.572
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government budget; Government budget deficit; Business cycle; Forecasting error; Forecasting bias; Státní rozpočet; Schodek státního rozpočtu; Prognostická chyba; Hospodářský cyklus; Politická bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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