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Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in South Africa

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  • Sin-Yu Ho

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine the macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in South Africa during the period 1975–2015. Specifically, it examines the impact of banking sector development, economic growth, inflation rate, real interest rate and trade openness on the development of the South African stock market. Design/methodology/approach - The author employs autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure that allows the author to empirically investigate both the short- and long-run relationships between the stock market development and its determinants in the context of South Africa. In addition, the author also conducts a sensitivity analysis by accounting for the presence of structural breaks in the underlying series to check for the robustness of the estimation. Findings - This paper confirms the findings by other studies that banking sector development and economic growth promote stock market development, while inflation rate and real interest rate inhibit stock market development. In addition, this paper finds an interesting result in the fact that trade openness has a negative impact on stock market development, which is different from the findings of many other studies. Originality/value - Currently, while the theoretical and empirical literature presents diverse views on the relationship between each determinant and stock market development, no study has focussed on the South African stock market. Given the significant role that the South African stock market plays in Africa as measured by its market capitalisation and market capitalisation ratio, there is a need for a better understanding of the macroeconomic factors influencing its development.

Suggested Citation

  • Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock market development in South Africa," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(2), pages 322-342, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijoemp:ijoem-09-2017-0341
    DOI: 10.1108/IJoEM-09-2017-0341
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    1. Mdingi, Kholeka & Ho, Sin-Yu, 2023. "Income inequality and economic growth: An empirical investigation in South Africa," MPRA Paper 117733, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    South Africa; Stock market development; ARDL bounds testing; Macroeconomic determinants; C22; E44; G23;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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