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The impact of economic fundamentals on stock markets in southern Africa

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  • Keith Jefferis
  • Charles Okeahalam

Abstract

The issue of whether stock markets reflect economic fundamentals or speculative bubbles is an important one for their potential role in allocating capital, and relates to a policy issue of whether stock markets should be encouraged in developing countries. This article examines the impact of both domestic and foreign economic factors on real stock market returns in three southern African stock markets - South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana, from 1985-95 - using cointegration and error correction techniques. It finds that, while in all cases stock markets are influenced by domestic economic growth, there are no common patterns beyond this. The influence of other domestic and economic variables depends on the size, openness and market-orientation of the individual economies, as well as the size and liquidity of the various stock exchanges. Where foreign economic variables are important, they appear to be those related to trade, rather than international capital flows, indicating that there is little integration of these capital markets, whether regionally or internationally.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/03768350050003398
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Development Southern Africa.

Volume (Year): 17 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 23-51

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Handle: RePEc:taf:deveza:v:17:y:2000:i:1:p:23-51

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Cited by:
  1. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
  2. Yu Hsing, 2011. "The Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in a BRICS Country and Policy Implications," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 12-18.
  3. Enisan, Akinlo A. & Olufisayo, Akinlo O., 2009. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 162-171.
  4. Samuel Bindu & Lloyd Chigusiwa & D. Mazambani & L. Muchabaiwa & V. Mudavanhu, 2011. "The Effect of stock market wealth on private consumption in Zimbabwe," International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR), Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(2), pages 125-142, August.

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  1. Charles Chinedu Okeahalam in Wikipedia (English)

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