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A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks

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  • Nguyen, Son
  • Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling
  • Du, Yuquan
  • Shi, Wenming

Abstract

Uncertainty is a fundamental obstacle in container shipping operational risks (CSORs) evaluation and management. This study presents a model to quantitatively analyze CSORs with comprehensive uncertainty handling. The model features a Delphi risk communication platform (RCP) designed to establish a deliberative environment for expert interaction and cooperation. The risk level is assessed through a Bayesian network while a fuzzy-based system is implemented to evaluate the attached base of knowledge. Besides the validation of reliability and robustness by a sensitivity analysis, the conducted case study confirms the feasibility and functionality of the model, especially the impact of the implemented Delphi RCP.

Suggested Citation

  • Nguyen, Son & Chen, Peggy Shu-Ling & Du, Yuquan & Shi, Wenming, 2019. "A quantitative risk analysis model with integrated deliberative Delphi platform for container shipping operational risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 203-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:203-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2019.08.002
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    5. Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk & Amr Radwan & Nahed Salem & Mahmoud M. Sakr & Manuela TvaronaviÄ ienÄ—, 2019. "Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 1(4), pages 357-369, December.
    6. Jia, Xiaohui & Zhang, Donghui, 2021. "Prediction of maritime logistics service risks applying soft set based association rule: An early warning model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    7. Gebhardt, Maximilian & Spieske, Alexander & Birkel, Hendrik, 2022. "The future of the circular economy and its effect on supply chain dependencies: Empirical evidence from a Delphi study," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Seddigh, Mohammad Reza & Targholizadeh, Aida & Shokouhyar, Sajjad & Shokoohyar, Sina, 2023. "Social media and expert analysis cast light on the mechanisms of underlying problems in pharmaceutical supply chain: An exploratory approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Shoukohyar, Sajjad & Seddigh, Mohammad Reza, 2020. "Uncovering the dark and bright sides of implementing collaborative forecasting throughout sustainable supply chains: An exploratory approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Martin Folch-Calvo & Francisco Brocal-Fernández & Cristina González-Gaya & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2020. "Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-35, September.

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