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The risk concept—historical and recent development trends

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  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

This paper reviews the definition and meaning of the concept of risk. The review has a historical and development trend perspective, also covering recent years. It is questioned if, and to what extent, it is possible to identify some underlying patterns in the way risk has been, and is being understood today. The analysis is based on a new categorisation of risk definitions and an assessment of these categories in relation to a set of critical issues, including how these risk definitions match typical daily-life phrases about risk. The paper presents a set of constructed development paths for the risk concept and concludes that over the last 15–20 years we have seen a shift from rather narrow perspectives based on probabilities to ways of thinking which highlight events, consequences and uncertainties. However, some of the more narrow perspectives (like expected values and probability-based perspectives) are still strongly influencing the risk field, although arguments can be provided against their use. The implications of this situation for risk assessment and risk management are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, Terje, 2012. "The risk concept—historical and recent development trends," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 33-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:99:y:2012:i:c:p:33-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.11.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dubois, Didier, 2006. "Possibility theory and statistical reasoning," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 47-69, November.
    2. Aven, Terje, 2010. "On how to define, understand and describe risk," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 623-631.
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    9. Eyvind Aven & Terje Aven, 2011. "On how to understand and express enterprise risk," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(1), pages 20-34.
    10. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2011. "Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-74.
    11. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2010. "Risk Management and Governance," Risk, Governance and Society, Springer, number 978-3-642-13926-0, March.
    12. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
    13. Runde, Jochen, 1998. "Clarifying Frank Knight's Discussion of the Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(5), pages 539-546, September.
    14. Aven, Terje, 2011. "On the new ISO guide on risk management terminology," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 719-726.
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