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Practical implications of the new risk perspectives

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  • Aven, Terje

Abstract

In recent years several authors have argued for the adoption of certain new types of risk perspectives which highlight uncertainties rather than probabilities in the way risk is understood and measured. The theoretical rationale for these new perspectives is well established, but the practical implications have not been so clearly demonstrated. There is a need to show how the new perspectives change the way risk is described and communicated in real-life situations and in its turn the effects on risk management and decision making. The present paper aims at contributing to this end by considering two cases, related to a national risk level, and a specific analysis concerning an LNG plant. The paper concludes that the new risk perspectives influence the current regime in many ways, in particular the manner in which the knowledge dimension is described and dealt with. Two methods for characterising the strength of knowledge are presented, one of them based on a new concept, the “assumption deviation risk†, reflecting risks related to the deviations from the conditions/states defined by the assumption made.

Suggested Citation

  • Aven, Terje, 2013. "Practical implications of the new risk perspectives," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 136-145.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:115:y:2013:i:c:p:136-145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2013.02.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aven, Terje, 2013. "A conceptual framework for linking risk and the elements of the data–information–knowledge–wisdom (DIKW) hierarchy," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 30-36.
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    5. Aven, Terje, 2011. "Selective critique of risk assessments with recommendations for improving methodology and practise," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(5), pages 509-514.
    6. Joel Tickner & David Kriebel, 2006. "The Role of Science and Precaution in Environmental and Public Health Policy," Chapters, in: Elizabeth Fisher & Judith Jones & René von Schomberg (ed.), Implementing the Precautionary Principle, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Bo Bergman, 2009. "Conceptualistic Pragmatism: A framework for Bayesian analysis?," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 86-93.
    8. Aven, Terje & Zio, Enrico, 2011. "Some considerations on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision making," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 64-74.
    9. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2010. "Risk Management and Governance," Risk, Governance and Society, Springer, number 978-3-642-13926-0, March.
    10. Terje Aven & Ortwin Renn, 2009. "On risk defined as an event where the outcome is uncertain," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, January.
    11. Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2010. "Risk analysis and risk acceptance criteria in the planning processes of hazardous facilities—A case of an LNG plant in an urban area," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 662-670.
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    14. Aven, Terje & Vinnem, Jan Erik, 2005. "On the use of risk acceptance criteria in the offshore oil and gas industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 15-24.
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