IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transe/v113y2018icp75-93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping

Author

Listed:
  • Haehl, Christian
  • Spinler, Stefan

Abstract

We present a real options model for capacity expansion that introduces uncertainty about potential future regulation (regulatory uncertainty) and key characteristics of capacity decisions: investment with time to build, divestment, the option to charter, and operating flexibility. Regulatory uncertainty is modelled as a possible jump in operating, investment, and charter costs during the simulation horizon. We find that regulatory uncertainty with grandfathering (the extant fleet is exempt from compliance) promotes high up-front investment leading to excess capacity and increased emissions. However, regulatory uncertainty without grandfathering reduces investment and emissions and the use of more flexible capacity options, such as chartering.

Suggested Citation

  • Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2018. "Capacity expansion under regulatory uncertainty:A real options-based study in international container shipping," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 75-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:75-93
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2018.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1366554517308463
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tre.2018.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    3. Ritzenhofen, Ingmar & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Optimal design of feed-in-tariffs to stimulate renewable energy investments under regulatory uncertainty — A real options analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 76-89.
    4. Baumann Florian & Friehe Tim, 2012. "Market Liberalization, Regulatory Uncertainty, and Firm Investment," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 352-361, August.
    5. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-622, June.
    6. Kira R. Fabrizio, 2013. "The Effect of Regulatory Uncertainty on Investment: Evidence from Renewable Energy Generation," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 765-798, August.
    7. Saul I. Gass, 1983. "Feature Article—Decision-Aiding Models: Validation, Assessment, and Related Issues for Policy Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(4), pages 603-631, August.
    8. Martzoukos, Spiros H. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2002. "Real (investment) options with multiple sources of rare events," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 696-706, February.
    9. Helen B Bendall & Alan F Stent, 2005. "Ship Investment under Uncertainty: Valuing a Real Option on the Maximum of Several Strategies," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 7(1), pages 19-35, March.
    10. Felipe L. Aguerrevere, 2003. "Equilibrium Investment Strategies and Output Price Behavior: A Real-Options Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1239-1272.
    11. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2017. "Alliance formation in a cooperative container shipping game: Performance of a real options investment approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 155-175.
    12. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Investment into container shipping capacity: A real options approach in oligopolistic competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 130-147.
    13. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    14. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    15. Sigbjørn Sødal & Steen Koekebakker & Roar Adland, 2009. "Value based trading of real assets in shipping under stochastic freight rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(22), pages 2793-2807.
    16. Volker H. Hoffmann & Thomas Trautmann & Jens Hamprecht, 2009. "Regulatory Uncertainty: A Reason to Postpone Investments? Not Necessarily," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 1227-1253, November.
    17. Helen B. Bendall & Alan F. Stent, 2007. "Maritime investment strategies with a portfolio of real options," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 441-452, October.
    18. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    19. Fontes, Dalila B.M.M., 2008. "Fixed versus flexible production systems: A real options analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 169-184, July.
    20. Peter S. Reinelt & David W. Keith, 2007. "Carbon Capture Retrofits and the Cost of Regulatory Uncertainty," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 101-128.
    21. Fuss, Sabine & Johansson, Daniel J.A. & Szolgayova, Jana & Obersteiner, Michael, 2009. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 733-743, February.
    22. Sødal, Sigbjørn & Koekebakker, Steen & Aadland, Roar, 2008. "Market switching in shipping -- A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 183-203, August.
    23. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    24. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    25. Blyth, William & Bradley, Richard & Bunn, Derek & Clarke, Charlie & Wilson, Tom & Yang, Ming, 2007. "Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5766-5773, November.
    26. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    27. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    28. Driouchi, Tarik & Bennett, David & Simpson, Gary, 2010. "A path-dependent contingent-claims approach to capacity investments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(1), pages 319-323, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Balliauw, Matteo, 2021. "From theoretical real options models to pragmatic decision making: Required steps, opportunities and threats," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    2. Marek Durica & Danuse Guttenova & Ludovit Pinda & Lucia Svabova, 2018. "Sustainable Value of Investment in Real Estate: Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Zheng, Wei & Li, Bo & Song, Dongping, 2022. "The optimal green strategies for competitive ocean carriers under potential regulation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 840-856.
    4. Yuan, Quan & Hua, Zhongsheng & Shen, Bin, 2021. "An automated system of emissions permit trading for transportation firms," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Katarzyna Prill & Cezary Behrendt & Marcin Szczepanek & Iwona Michalska-Pożoga, 2020. "A New Method of Determining Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator for Specialized Ships," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-17, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Haehl, Christian & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Technology Choice under Emission Regulation Uncertainty in International Container Shipping," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 383-396.
    2. Shun Chen & Shiyuan Zheng & Qiang Zhang, 2018. "Investment decisions under uncertainty on LNG-powered vessels for environmental compliance," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Linnerud, Kristin & Molnár, Peter & Tandberg Nygaard, Maria, 2016. "Green electricity investment timing in practice: Real options or net present value?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 498-506.
    4. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A real options–based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China’s power generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4320-4333.
    5. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    6. Carmen Schiel & Simon Glöser-Chahoud & Frank Schultmann, 2019. "A real option application for emission control measures," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(3), pages 291-325, April.
    7. Nagy, Roel L.G. & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M., 2021. "Green capacity investment under subsidy withdrawal risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    8. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.
    9. Kang, Sang Baum & Létourneau, Pascal, 2016. "Investors’ reaction to the government credibility problem: A real option analysis of emission permit policy risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 96-107.
    10. ShahNazari, Mahdi & McHugh, Adam & Maybee, Bryan & Whale, Jonathan, 2014. "The effect of political cycles on power investment decisions: Expectations over the repeal and reinstatement of carbon policy mechanisms in Australia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 157-165.
    11. Romano, Teresa & Fumagalli, Elena, 2018. "Greening the power generation sector: Understanding the role of uncertainty," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 272-286.
    12. Cheng, Cheng & Wang, Zhen & Liu, Mingming & Chen, Qiang & Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Ren, Xiaohang, 2017. "Defer option valuation and optimal investment timing of solar photovoltaic projects under different electricity market systems and support schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 594-610.
    13. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2016. "Investment into container shipping capacity: A real options approach in oligopolistic competition," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 130-147.
    14. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    15. Rau, Philipp & Spinler, Stefan, 2017. "Alliance formation in a cooperative container shipping game: Performance of a real options investment approach," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 155-175.
    16. Seiji Harikae & James S. Dyer & Tianyang Wang, 2021. "Valuing Real Options in the Volatile Real World," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 171-189, January.
    17. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2009. "Monte Carlo valuation of natural gas investments," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 10-22, January.
    18. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    19. Lei Zhu & ZhongXiang Zhang & Ying Fan, 2011. "An Evaluation of Overseas Oil Investment Projects under Uncertainty Using a Real Options Based Simulation Model," Working Papers 2011.83, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Kou, Ying & Luo, Meifeng, 2018. "Market driven ship investment decision using the real option approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 714-729.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transe:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:75-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600244/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.