IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/transa/v83y2016icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects: An econometric estimation in the case of Norway

Author

Listed:
  • Odeck, James
  • Johansen, Kjell

Abstract

We estimate the elasticities of fuel and travel demand with respect to fuel prices and income in the case of Norway. Furthermore, we derive the direct rebound effects that explain the degree to which a fuel price increase is “offset” in the form of greater fuel use and/or travel due to improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. For this purpose, we use and compare two alternative econometric approaches: the error correction model (ECM) and the dynamic model. Our initial assumption is that one should not be indifferent with respect to the approach used to derive elasticities. The data used are for the period 1980–2011. Our results indicate the following: (1) the dynamic model fits the data better than the ECM model does; (2) the estimated elasticities of fuel demand with respect to price and income are −0.26 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.36 and 0.09 in the long run. For travel demand, the respective elasticities are −0.11 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.24 and 0.13 in the long run, implying inelastic demands for fuel and travel demand; and (3) rebound effects indicate that 0.26% and 0.06% of fuel savings as a result of fuel price increase will be offset in the form of more fuel use in the short run and in the long run, respectively, if fuel efficiency increases by 1%. Our policy recommendations are that policies should not be indifferent to the methods used to derive elasticities. We contend that it is crucial to seriously consider rebound effects in policy making because basic elasticity estimates exaggerate the impact of fuel price increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Odeck, James & Johansen, Kjell, 2016. "Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects: An econometric estimation in the case of Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:83:y:2016:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.10.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856415002530
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tra.2015.10.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    2. Kenneth A. Small & Kurt Van Dender, 2007. "Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-52.
    3. Zia Wadud & Daniel Graham & Robert Noland, 2009. "A cointegration analysis of gasoline demand in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(26), pages 3327-3336.
    4. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2012. "The Long Run Demand for Lighting:Elasticities and Rebound Effects in Different Phases of Economic Development," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    6. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John, 2008. "The rebound effect: Microeconomic definitions, limitations and extensions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 636-649, April.
    7. Banerjee, Anindya, et al, 1986. "Exploring Equilibrium Relationships in Econometrics through Static Models: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 253-277, August.
    8. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir, 2012. "The determinants of fuel use in the trucking industry—volume, fleet characteristics and the rebound effect," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 284-295.
    9. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    10. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    11. Crôtte, Amado & Noland, Robert B. & Graham, Daniel J., 2010. "An analysis of gasoline demand elasticities at the national and local levels in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4445-4456, August.
    12. Akinboade, Oludele A. & Ziramba, Emmanuel & Kumo, Wolassa L., 2008. "The demand for gasoline in South Africa: An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3222-3229, November.
    13. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
    14. Matos, Fernando J.F. & Silva, Francisco J.F., 2011. "The rebound effect on road freight transport: Empirical evidence from Portugal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2833-2841, May.
    15. Wang, H. & Zhou, P. & Zhou, D.Q., 2012. "An empirical study of direct rebound effect for passenger transport in urban China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 452-460.
    16. Sene, Seydina Ousmane, 2012. "Estimating the demand for gasoline in developing countries: Senegal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 189-194.
    17. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
    18. Molly Espey, 1996. "Explaining the Variation in Elasticity Estimates of Gasoline Demand in the United States: A Meta-Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 49-60.
    19. Daniel Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2005. "Decomposing the determinants of road traffic demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 19-28.
    20. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    21. Alves, Denisard C. O. & De Losso da Silveira Bueno, Rodrigo, 2003. "Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 191-199, March.
    22. Li, Zheng & Rose, John M. & Hensher, David A., 2010. "Forecasting automobile petrol demand in Australia: An evaluation of empirical models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 16-38, January.
    23. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Zeng, Jieyin (Jean), 2013. "The elasticity of demand for gasoline in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 189-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhenni & Du, Huibin & Li, Jianglong & Southworth, Frank & Ma, Shoufeng, 2019. "Achieving low-carbon urban passenger transport in China: Insights from the heterogeneous rebound effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1029-1041.
    2. Li, Zheng & Zeng, Jingjing & Hensher, David A., 2023. "An efficient approach to structural breaks and the case of automobile gasoline consumption in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Lu-Yi Qiu & Ling-Yun He, 2016. "Are Chinese transport policies effective? A new perspective from direct pollution rebound effect, and empirical evidence from road transport sector," Papers 1612.02653, arXiv.org.
    4. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2016. "Measuring the rebound effect with micro data: A first difference approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Galvin, Ray, 2017. "How does speed affect the rebound effect in car travel? Conceptual issues explored in case study of 900 Formula 1 Grand Prix speed trials," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 28-38.
    6. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Roy, Mandira, 2017. "Supply elasticity matters for the rebound effect and its impact on policy comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 111-120.
    7. Dimitropoulos, Alexandros & Oueslati, Walid & Sintek, Christina, 2018. "The rebound effect in road transport: A meta-analysis of empirical studies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 163-179.
    8. de Grange, Louis & Troncoso, Rodrigo & Briones, Ignacio, 2018. "Cost, production and efficiency in local bus industry: An empirical analysis for the bus system of Santiago," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-11.
    9. Galvin, Ray & Martulli, Alessandro & Ruzzenenti, Franco, 2021. "Does power curb energy efficiency? Evidence from two decades of European truck tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Hössinger, Reinhard & Link, Christoph & Sonntag, Axel & Stark, Juliane, 2017. "Estimating the price elasticity of fuel demand with stated preferences derived from a situational approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 154-171.
    11. Shaw, Charles, 2020. "Econometric Analysis of Demand for Petrol in India, 1966-2019," MPRA Paper 104797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Rocha, Felipe Freitas da & Almeida, Edmar Luiz Fagundes de, 2021. "A general equilibrium model of macroeconomic rebound effect: A broader view," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Jihye Byun & Sungjin Park & Kitae Jang, 2017. "Rebound Effect or Induced Demand? Analyzing the Compound Dual Effects on VMT in the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-10, February.
    14. Galvin, Ray, 2016. "Rebound effects from speed and acceleration in electric and internal combustion engine cars: An empirical and conceptual investigation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 207-216.
    15. Chen, Qian & Zha, Donglan & Wang, Lijun & Yang, Guanglei, 2022. "The direct CO2 rebound effect in households: Evidence from China's provinces," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    16. Burke, Paul J. & Batsuuri, Tsendsuren & Yudhistira, Muhammad Halley, 2017. "Easing the traffic: The effects of Indonesia’s fuel subsidy reforms on toll-road travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 167-180.
    17. Ouyang, Xiaoling & Yang, Yuchuan & Du, Kerui & Cheng, Zhenyu, 2022. "How does residential electricity consumption respond to electricity efficiency improvement? Evidence from 287 prefecture-level cities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    18. Daldoul Manel & Dakhlaoui Ahlem, 2021. "The Direct Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy: An Econometric Estimation in the case of Tunisian Transport Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 235-243.
    19. Lu-Yi Qiu & Ling-Yun He, 2017. "Are Chinese Green Transport Policies Effective? A New Perspective from Direct Pollution Rebound Effect, and Empirical Evidence From the Road Transport Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    20. Ahmed, Kashif & Kamihigashi, Takashi & Matsuo, Miwa, 2023. "Positive fuel price elasticities of expressway traffic flows: Insights for policymakers and management strategists," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 99-114.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daldoul Manel & Dakhlaoui Ahlem, 2021. "The Direct Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy: An Econometric Estimation in the case of Tunisian Transport Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 235-243.
    2. Kenneth Gillingham & David Rapson & Gernot Wagner, 2016. "The Rebound Effect and Energy Efficiency Policy," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 68-88.
    3. Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid & Hajiani, Parviz, 2014. "Price and Income Elasticities of Gasoline Demand in Iran: Using Static, ECM, and Dynamic Models in Short, Intermediate, and Long Run," MPRA Paper 70054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia & Prince, Lea, 2013. "Gasoline price volatility and the elasticity of demand for gasoline," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 111-117.
    5. Havranek, Tomas & Kokes, Ondrej, 2015. "Income elasticity of gasoline demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 77-86.
    6. Lu-Yi Qiu & Ling-Yun He, 2017. "Are Chinese Green Transport Policies Effective? A New Perspective from Direct Pollution Rebound Effect, and Empirical Evidence From the Road Transport Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-11, March.
    7. Lu-Yi Qiu & Ling-Yun He, 2016. "Are Chinese transport policies effective? A new perspective from direct pollution rebound effect, and empirical evidence from road transport sector," Papers 1612.02653, arXiv.org.
    8. Afkhami, Mohamad & Ghoddusi, Hamed & Rafizadeh, Nima, 2021. "Google Search Explains Your Gasoline Consumption!," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    9. Rodrigues, Luciano & Bacchi, Mirian Rumenos Piedade, 2017. "Analyzing light fuel demand elasticities in Brazil using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 322-331.
    10. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    11. Huntington, Hillard G. & Barrios, James J. & Arora, Vipin, 2019. "Review of key international demand elasticities for major industrializing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    12. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2012. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 201-207.
    13. Wang, H. & Zhou, D.Q. & Zhou, P. & Zha, D.L., 2012. "Direct rebound effect for passenger transport: Empirical evidence from Hong Kong," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 162-167.
    14. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    15. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2017. "How much can CO2 emissions be reduced if fossil fuel subsidies are removed?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-104.
    16. Anderson, Soren T., 2012. "The demand for ethanol as a gasoline substitute," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 151-168.
    17. Llorca, Manuel & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2017. "Energy efficiency and rebound effect in European road freight transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 98-110.
    18. Muhammad Omer, 2018. "Estimating Elasticity of Transport Fuel Demand in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 96, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    19. Sorrell, Steve & Dimitropoulos, John & Sommerville, Matt, 2009. "Empirical estimates of the direct rebound effect: A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1356-1371, April.
    20. Nasser Al Dossary & Carol A. Dahl, 2009. "Is Global Gasoline Demand Still as Responsive to Price?," Working Papers 2009-01, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:83:y:2016:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.