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Financial contagion: A local correlation analysis

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  • Inci, A. Can
  • Li, H.C.
  • McCarthy, Joseph
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    Abstract

    Local correlation is used to examine financial contagion. We share the view of previous research that there is contagion from the U.S. spot equity market to that of Germany and Britain. In addition, we provide evidence to suggest contagion from the U.S. spot equity market to that of Japan and Hong Kong. Furthermore, we have detected contagion from U.S. futures to other futures markets. However, there is no reverse contagion from any of the German, British, Japanese, and Hong Kong spot or index futures markets to those of the U.S. The results have international diversification, portfolio management, and within-industry implications.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in International Business and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 25 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 11-25

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:11-25

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf

    Related research

    Keywords: Financial contagion Local correlation Index futures;

    References

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    1. Marcel Fratzscher, 2000. "On Currency Crises and Contagion," Working Paper Series WP00-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Ng, Angela, 2000. "Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific-Basin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-233, April.
    3. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Peter Clark & Haizhou Huang, 2006. "International Financial Contagion and the Fund —A Theoretical Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 399-422, December.
    7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. V�gh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
    8. Adrian, T. & Shin, H S., 2008. "Liquidity and financial contagion," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 1-7, February.
    9. Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian M., 2004. "International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 571-583.
    10. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    12. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, July.
    13. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, 04.
    14. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    Cited by:
    1. Støve, Bård & Tjøstheim, Dag & Hufthammer, Karl Ove, 2014. "Using local Gaussian correlation in a nonlinear re-examination of financial contagion," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 62-82.
    2. Jessica James & Kristjan Kasikov & Kerry-Ann Edwards, 2012. "The end of diversification," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 1629-1636, November.
    3. Kemper, Kris & Lee, Allissa & Simkins, Betty J., 2012. "Diversification revisited," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 304-316.
    4. Ng, Andrew Cheuk-Yin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Chan, Wai-Sum, 2011. "Modeling investment guarantees in Japan: A risk-neutral GARCH approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 20-26, January.
    5. Tjøstheim, Dag & Hufthammer, Karl Ove, 2013. "Local Gaussian correlation: A new measure of dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 33-48.

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