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Optimal fishery harvesting rules under uncertainty

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  • Sarkar, Sudipto
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    Abstract

    This paper derives the optimal fishery harvest policy in a real-option model with a stochastic logistic growth process, harvest-sensitive output price, and both fixed and variable harvesting costs. The policy specifies the harvest trigger and harvest size, while outputs from the model include the value of the fishery and the risk of extinction. The optimal policy is illustrated with data from the Pacific Halibut Fishery. For this particular case, the optimal policy recommends harvesting when the fish stock rises to about three-quarters the environmental carrying capacity, and the amount harvested should be approximately a quarter of the prevailing stock. This harvesting policy maximizes the value of the fishery, and importantly, the resulting risk of extinction is negligible. We also carry out some sensitivity analysis to see how the optimal policy (and the resulting fishery value and risk of extinction) change when the input parameters are varied, particularly the ecological parameters intrinsic growth rate and volatility of the stock, and also the economic parameters that have been ignored in previous papers (price sensitivity and fixed cost). If the optimal policy is followed, the risk of extinction will be negligible, except for very low growth rate and high volatility.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Resource and Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 4 (November)
    Pages: 272-286

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:resene:v:31:y:2009:i:4:p:272-286

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505569

    Related research

    Keywords: Fish harvesting Optimal harvest trigger Optimal harvest quantity Real option;

    References

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    1. R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Pham Van Ha, 2005. "The Economic Payoffs from Marine Reserves: Resource Rents in a Stochastic Environment," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec05-3, International and Development Economics.
    2. Liski, M. & Kort, P.M. & Novak, A.J., 2000. "Increasing Returns and Cycles in Fishing," Discussion Paper 2000-57, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
    4. Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn & Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Fisheries management with stock growth uncertainty and costly capital adjustment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 582-599, September.
    5. H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124.
    6. Arantza Murillas & José Manuel Chamorro, 2006. "Valuation and Management of Fishing Resources Under Price Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 39-71, 01.
    7. McDonald, Robert & Siegel, Daniel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-27, November.
    8. Clark, Colin W, 1973. "Profit Maximization and the Extinction of Animal Species," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(4), pages 950-61, July-Aug..
    9. Tracy R. Lewis, 1981. "Exploitation of a Renewable Resource under Uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 422-39, August.
    10. Clark, Colin W. & Munro, Gordon R., 1975. "The economics of fishing and modern capital theory: A simplified approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 92-106, December.
    11. Rognvaldur Hannesson, 1975. "Fishery Dynamics: A North Atlantic Cod Fishery," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 8(2), pages 151-73, May.
    12. Saphores, Jean-Daniel, 2003. "Harvesting a renewable resource under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 509-529, December.
    13. R. Quentin Grafton & Leif K. Sandal & Stein Ivar Steinshamn, 2000. "How to Improve the Management of Renewable Resources: The Case of Canada's Northern Cod Fishery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 570-580.
    14. Tracy R. Lewis & Richard Schmalensee, 1979. "Non-convexity and Optimal Harvesting Strategies for Renewable Resources," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(4), pages 677-91, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Poudel, Diwakar & Sandal, Leif K., 2014. "Stochastic Optimization for Multispecies Fisheries in the Barents Sea," Discussion Papers 2014/2, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
    2. Poudel, Diwakar & Sandal, Leif K. & Kvamsdal, Sturla F., 2012. "Analyzing Risk of Stock Collapse in a Fishery under Stochastic Profit Maximization," Discussion Papers 2012/4, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.

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