Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Analyzing Risk of Stock Collapse in a Fishery under Stochastic Profit Maximization

Contents:

Author Info

  • Poudel, Diwakar

    ()
    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Sandal, Leif K.

    ()
    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

  • Kvamsdal, Sturla F.

    ()
    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

In commercial fisheries, stock collapse is an intrinsic problem caused by overexploitation or due to pure stochasticity. To analyze the risk of stock collapse, we apply a relatively simple Monte Carlo approach which can capture complex stock dynamics. We use an economic model with downward sloping demand and stock dependent costs. First, we derive an optimal exploitation policy as a feedback control rule and analyze the effects of stochasticity. We observe that the stochastic solution is more conservative compared to the deterministic solution at low level of stochasticity. For moderate level of stochasticity, a more myopic exploitation is optimal at small stock and conservative at large stock level. For relatively high stochasticity, one should be myopic in exploitation. Then, we simulate the system forward in time with the optimal solution. In simulated paths, some stock recovered while others collapsed. From the simulation approach, we estimate the probability of stock collapse and characterize the long term stable region.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nhh.no/Admin/Public/DWSDownload.aspx?File=%2fFiles%2fFiler%2finstitutter%2ffor%2fdp%2f2012%2f0412.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2012/4.

as in new window
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 27 Apr 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2012_004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Phone: +47 55 95 92 93
Fax: +47 55 95 96 50
Email:
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspx
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Stochasticity; Ensemble Kalman filter; Stock Collapse; Probability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Reed, William J., 1979. "Optimal escapement levels in stochastic and deterministic harvesting models," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 350-363, December.
  2. repec:ags:mareec:47834 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. James Sanchirico & Michael Springborn, 2011. "How to Get There From Here: Ecological and Economic Dynamics of Ecosystem Service Provision," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 243-267, February.
  4. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2009. "Optimal fishery harvesting rules under uncertainty," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 272-286, November.
  5. Clark, Colin W. & Munro, Gordon R., 1975. "The economics of fishing and modern capital theory: A simplified approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 92-106, December.
  6. Nostbakken, Linda, 2006. "Regime switching in a fishery with stochastic stock and price," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241, March.
  7. Robert J. Johnston & Jon G. Sutinen, 1996. "Uncertain Biomass Shift and Collapse: Implications for Harvest Policy in the Fishery," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 72(4), pages 500-518.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2012_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stein Fossen).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.