IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v72y2017icp1124-1137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Ruffato-Ferreira, Vera
  • da Costa Barreto, Renata
  • Oscar Júnior, Antonio
  • Silva, Wanderson Luiz
  • de Berrêdo Viana, Daniel
  • do Nascimento, José Antonio Sena
  • de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos

Abstract

The current article assesses the vulnerability of renewable energies in Brazil in the face of climate change, with hydroelectricity and wind power taken as case studies. Future climate data produced by the National Institute for Space Research were employed for three time slices (2010–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) taken from the Eta 20km regional model using the global model HadGem2-ES of the IPCC AR5, for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Based on these data and using indicators, it was possible to generate predictions that are useful for the evaluation of the impacts of future climate scenarios on the current energy infrastructure, enabling the proposition of recommendations for mitigation and adaptation in the energy sector, a strategic subject for Brazilian governmental programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruffato-Ferreira, Vera & da Costa Barreto, Renata & Oscar Júnior, Antonio & Silva, Wanderson Luiz & de Berrêdo Viana, Daniel & do Nascimento, José Antonio Sena & de Freitas, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos, 2017. "A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1124-1137.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:72:y:2017:i:c:p:1124-1137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032116306748
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Allison Thomson & Katherine Calvin & Steven Smith & G. Kyle & April Volke & Pralit Patel & Sabrina Delgado-Arias & Ben Bond-Lamberty & Marshall Wise & Leon Clarke & James Edmonds, 2011. "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 77-94, November.
    2. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    3. de Jong, P. & Sánchez, A.S. & Esquerre, K. & Kalid, R.A. & Torres, E.A., 2013. "Solar and wind energy production in relation to the electricity load curve and hydroelectricity in the northeast region of Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 526-535.
    4. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    5. Sánchez, A.S. & Torres, E.A. & Kalid, R.A., 2015. "Renewable energy generation for the rural electrification of isolated communities in the Amazon Region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 278-290.
    6. Pereira, Enio B. & Martins, Fernando R. & Pes, Marcelo P. & da Cruz Segundo, Eliude I. & Lyra, André de A., 2013. "The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 107-110.
    7. Pereira de Lucena, André Frossard & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Schaeffer, Roberto & Dutra, Ricardo Marques, 2010. "The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 904-912.
    8. de Lucena, André Frossard Pereira & Szklo, Alexandre Salem & Schaeffer, Roberto & de Souza, Raquel Rodrigues & Borba, Bruno Soares Moreira Cesar & da Costa, Isabella Vaz Leal & Júnior, Amaro Olimpio P, 2009. "The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 879-889, March.
    9. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Jong, Pieter & Barreto, Tarssio B. & Tanajura, Clemente A.S. & Kouloukoui, Daniel & Oliveira-Esquerre, Karla P. & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2019. "Estimating the impact of climate change on wind and solar energy in Brazil using a South American regional climate model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 390-401.
    2. Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2018. "A decision-making model for the analysis of offshore wind farm projects under climate uncertainties: A case study of South Korea," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 853-860.
    3. Melo, Leonardo B. & Estanislau, Fidéllis B.G.L.e & Costa, Antonella L. & Fortini, Ângela, 2019. "Impacts of the hydrological potential change on the energy matrix of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais: A case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 415-422.
    4. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2022. "A review of recent studies on wind resource projections under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Kumarasamy Palanimuthu & Ganesh Mayilsamy & Ameerkhan Abdul Basheer & Seong-Ryong Lee & Dongran Song & Young Hoon Joo, 2022. "A Review of Recent Aerodynamic Power Extraction Challenges in Coordinated Pitch, Yaw, and Torque Control of Large-Scale Wind Turbine Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-27, November.
    6. Carvalho, N.B. & Berrêdo Viana, D. & Muylaert de Araújo, M.S. & Lampreia, J. & Gomes, M.S.P. & Freitas, M.A.V., 2020. "How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Paim, Maria-Augusta & Dalmarco, Arthur R. & Yang, Chung-Han & Salas, Pablo & Lindner, Sören & Mercure, Jean-Francois & de Andrade Guerra, José Baltazar Salgueirinho Osório & Derani, Cristiane & Bruce , 2019. "Evaluating regulatory strategies for mitigating hydrological risk in Brazil through diversification of its electricity mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 393-401.
    8. Janeth Carolina Godoy & Daniel Villamar & Rafael Soria & César Vaca & Thomas Hamacher & Freddy Ordóñez, 2021. "Preparing the Ecuador’s Power Sector to Enable a Large-Scale Electric Land Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Klimenko, V.V. & Fedotova, E.V. & Tereshin, A.G., 2018. "Vulnerability of the Russian power industry to the climate change," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1010-1022.
    10. Sun, Mingxing & Xu, Xiangbo & Wang, Le & Li, Chang & Zhang, Linxiu, 2021. "Stable energy, energy inequality, and climate change vulnerability in Pan-Third Pole regions: Empirical analysis in cross-national rural areas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Lourenço, Vitor Alves & Nadaleti, Willian Cézar & Vieira, Bruno Müller & Li, Hu, 2021. "Investigation of ethyl biodiesel via transesterification of rice bran oil: bioenergy from residual biomass in Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. de Lira Quaresma, Ana Carolina & Francisco, Flávio S. & Pessoa, Fernando L.P. & Queiroz, Eduardo M., 2018. "Carbon emission reduction in the Brazilian electricity sector using Carbon Sources Diagram," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 134-150.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viviescas, Cindy & Lima, Lucas & Diuana, Fabio A. & Vasquez, Eveline & Ludovique, Camila & Silva, Gabriela N. & Huback, Vanessa & Magalar, Leticia & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, André F.P. & Schaeffer, , 2019. "Contribution of Variable Renewable Energy to increase energy security in Latin America: Complementarity and climate change impacts on wind and solar resources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    2. de Jong, Pieter & Dargaville, Roger & Silver, Jeremy & Utembe, Steven & Kiperstok, Asher & Torres, Ednildo Andrade, 2017. "Forecasting high proportions of wind energy supplying the Brazilian Northeast electricity grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 538-555.
    3. Lucena, André F.P. & Hejazi, Mohamad & Vasquez-Arroyo, Eveline & Turner, Sean & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Kober, Tom & Cai, Yongxia & Beach, Robert H. & Gernaat,, 2018. "Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1161-1177.
    4. Wang, Bing & Ke, Ruo-Yu & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "China׳s regional assessment of renewable energy vulnerability to climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-195.
    5. Katopodis, Theodoros & Markantonis, Iason & Vlachogiannis, Diamando & Politi, Nadia & Sfetsos, Athanasios, 2021. "Assessing climate change impacts on wind characteristics in Greece through high resolution regional climate modelling," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 427-444.
    6. Herrera, Milton M. & Dyner, Isaac & Cosenz, Federico, 2019. "Assessing the effect of transmission constraints on wind power expansion in northeast Brazil," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    8. Ritchie, Justin & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2017. "The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 16-31.
    9. de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo & Marangon Lima, Luana M. & Marangon Lima, José W. & da Silva, Benedito C. & Scianni, Luciana A., 2016. "Climate change impacts in the energy supply of the Brazilian hydro-dominant power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 379-389.
    10. M. N. Lorenzo & I. Alvarez, 2022. "Future changes of hot extremes in Spain: towards warmer conditions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 383-402, August.
    11. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    12. Jaewon Kwak & Huiseong Noh & Soojun Kim & Vijay P. Singh & Seung Jin Hong & Duckgil Kim & Keonhaeng Lee & Narae Kang & Hung Soo Kim, 2014. "Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    13. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Taylor, Chris & Cullen, Brendan & D'Occhio, Michael & Rickards, Lauren & Eckard, Richard, 2018. "Trends in wheat yields under representative climate futures: Implications for climate adaptation," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Henzler, Julia & Weise, Hanna & Enright, Neal J. & Zander, Susanne & Tietjen, Britta, 2018. "A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 389(C), pages 41-49.
    16. Abhiru Aryal & Albira Acharya & Ajay Kalra, 2022. "Assessing the Implication of Climate Change to Forecast Future Flood Using CMIP6 Climate Projections and HEC-RAS Modeling," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    18. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    19. Américo S. Ribeiro & Maite deCastro & Liliana Rusu & Mariana Bernardino & João M. Dias & Moncho Gomez-Gesteira, 2020. "Evaluating the Future Efficiency of Wave Energy Converters along the NW Coast of the Iberian Peninsula," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-15, July.
    20. Qun'ou Jiang & Yuwei Cheng & Qiutong Jin & Xiangzheng Deng & Yuanjing Qi, 2015. "Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:72:y:2017:i:c:p:1124-1137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.