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On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis

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  • Hajilee, Massomeh
  • Stringer, Donna Y.
  • Hayes, Linda A.

Abstract

The existence of the shadow economy adversely affects stock market performance. Despite considerable studies on the impact of the shadow economy on different macroeconomic variables, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study on the relationship between the shadow economy and stock market development. This study investigates the link between the shadow economy and stock market development for a group of 17 selected emerging economies for the period of 1980−2017. The long-run and short-run relationships are examined. In addition to the Pesaran et al. (2001) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modeling (or linear ARDL model), we also employ the Shin et al. (2014) nonlinear cointegration approach, which investigates the asymmetric impact of the shadow economy on stock market development. Using a linear model, our findings show that, in a majority of countries in this sample, the existence of the shadow economy adversely affects stock market development. Meanwhile, as the first study using the N-ARDL estimation approach to investigate this relationship, we provide robust and strong statistical evidence that the impact of the shadow economy on stock market development, an important part of financial market development, is not symmetric.

Suggested Citation

  • Hajilee, Massomeh & Stringer, Donna Y. & Hayes, Linda A., 2021. "On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 303-316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:80:y:2021:i:c:p:303-316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2021.02.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shadow economy; Stock market development; Bounds testing; Emerging economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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