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Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach

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  • Mai Hassan
  • Friedrich Schneider

Abstract

We estimate the size and trend of the Egyptian shadow economy using two of the most common methods: the currency demand approach and the structural equation MIMIC model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study to estimate the size of the shadow economy in Egypt during the last four decades (1976 to 2013). In addition to the standard explanatory variables used in the currency demand approach and MIMIC model, we consider variables that are specifically related to the Egyptian economy such as self-employment, agricultural importance and a proxy for institutional quality of democratic institutions. Our results indicate a decreasing trend of the size of the shadow economy from more than 50% in 1976 to 32% in 2013, yet it still comprises a large portion of the official GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5727
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    2. James Murunga & Nelson W. Wawire & Moses K. Muriithi, 2021. "Tax Revenue Productivity of Tax Reforms in Kenya," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(12), pages 1-42, December.
    3. Rajeev K. Goel & James W. Saunoris & Friedrich Schneider, 2019. "Growth In The Shadows: Effect Of The Shadow Economy On U.S. Economic Growth Over More Than A Century," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 50-67, January.
    4. Christoforos Andreou & Elena Andreou & Stephanie Michael & George Syrichas, 2021. "The Shadow Economy in Cyprus: Evidence from the Electricity Consumption and Currency Demand Methods," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 15(1), pages 46-74, June.
    5. Hassan, Mai & Schneider, Friedrich, 2016. "Size and Development of the Shadow Economies of 157 Countries Worldwide: Updated and New Measures from 1999 to 2013," IZA Discussion Papers 10281, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Stefan Petranov & Dimitar Zlatinov & Ilia Atanasov, 2022. "The Shadow Economy in Bulgaria During the Period 2006-2019," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 3-18.
    7. Hailin Chen & Friedrich Schneider & Qunli Sun, 2020. "Measuring the size of the shadow economy in 30 provinces of China over 1995–2016: The MIMIC approach," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 427-453, August.
    8. Dasgupta, Manjira, 2017. "Moving towards "Cashlessness" in an emerging economy: A case study of latest policy steps in India," International Cash Conference 2017 – War on Cash: Is there a Future for Cash? 162907, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    10. Glenn Abela & Tiziana Gauci & Noel Rapa, 2022. "An Analysis of The Shadow Economy in Malta: A Currency Demand and MIMIC Model Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 41-50.
    11. Evgeniya Baturina & Alexander Litvinenko, 2018. "Monitoring of Shadow Cash Flows Using Computer Modelling," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 326-338.
    12. Sahnoun, Marwa & Abdennadher, Chokri, 2019. "The nexus between unemployment rate and shadow economy: A comparative analysis of developed and developing countries using a simultaneous-equation model," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Lahlou, Kamal & Doghmi, Hicham & Schneider, Friedrich, 2020. "The Size and Development of the Shadow Economy in Morocco," Document de travail 2020-3, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    14. Paraskevi Koufopoulou & Colin C. Williams & Athanassios Vozikis & Kyriakos Souliotis & Antonios Samprakos, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Economy Size in Greece 2000 - 2018: A Flexible MIMIC Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 71(3-4), pages 23-47, July-Dece.
    15. Bennihi, Aymen Salah & Bouriche, Lahcene & Schneider, Friedrich, 2021. "The informal economy in Algeria: New insights using the MIMIC approach and the interaction with the formal economy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 470-491.
    16. Schneider Friedrich & Buehn Andreas, 2017. "Shadow Economy: Estimation Methods, Problems, Results and Open questions," Open Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-29, March.
    17. Mohammed Nayel Abu Alfoul & Ibrahim Naser Khatatbeh & Fouad Jamaani, 2022. "What Determines the Shadow Economy? An Extreme Bounds Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy of Egypt; currency demand approach (CDA); MIMIC estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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