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Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: A correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach

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  • Michael Pickhardt
  • Jordi Sardà

Abstract

We review existing estimates of the size of the Spanish underground economy, apply the Ahumada et al. (2007, RIW) correction procedure to some of them and calculate the size of the underground economy in Spain for the period 1960 through 2009 by using the modified-cash-deposits-ratio (MCDR) approach recently developed by Pickhardt and Sardà (2011, EJLE). We then extend the MCDR approach with respect to an analysis of the causes of the Spanish underground economy. Contrary to most other studies, we show that the latter is not predominantly caused by tax pressure, but by labor market aspects, macroeconomic influences and criminal activities. Based on these findings we derive some unprecedented policy recommendations.

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  • Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, "undated". "Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: A correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach," Working Papers 201280, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    • Handle: RePEc:muc:wpaper:201280
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    Cited by:

    1. Massomeh Hajilee & Farhang Niroomand & Linda A. Hayes, 2023. "The relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy in OECD countries: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 539-566, September.
    2. Rios, Vicente, 2019. "New Evidence on the Size and Drivers of the Shadow Economy in Spain: A Model Averaging Approach," MPRA Paper 97504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2014. "Measuring the Underground Economy with the Currency Demand Approach: A Reinterpretation of the Methodology, With an Application to Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 747-772, December.
    4. Claudio Quintano & Paolo Mazzocchi, 2018. "Behind the GDP: some remarks on the shadow economy in Mediterranean countries," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 147-173, February.
    5. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, "undated". "Cash, Hoarding and the Underground Economy," Working Papers 201282, Institute of Spatial and Housing Economics, Munster Universitary.
    6. Michael Pickhardt & Jordi Sardà, 2015. "Size and causes of the underground economy in Spain: a correction of the record and new evidence from the MCDR approach," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 403-429, April.
    7. Gamal, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed & Rambeli, Norimah & Abdul Jalil, Norasibah & Kuperan Viswanathan, K., 2019. "A modified Currency Demand Function and the Malaysian shadow economy: Evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 266-281.
    8. Amendolagine, Vito & Capolupo, Rosa & Ferri, Giovanni, 2014. "Innovativeness, offshoring and black economy decisions. Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1153-1166.
    9. Mai Hassan & Friedrich Schneider, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A Currency Demand and A MIMIC Model Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5727, CESifo.
    10. Quintano, Claudio & Mazzocchi, Paolo, 2013. "The shadow economy beyond European public governance," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 650-670.
    11. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2015. "Analysis of the shadow economy in the Spanish regions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1049-1064.
    12. Vicente Ríos & Antonio Gómez & Pedro Pascual, 2021. "Raising the Accuracy of Shadow Economy Measurements," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 239(4), pages 71-125, November.
    13. Maria José Portillo Navarro & Pilar Ortiz García & Francisco Morales González, 2017. "Fraude Fiscal, Turismo Y Economía Sumergida En España. Un Análisis Por Cc Aa," Revista de Estudios Regionales, Universidades Públicas de Andalucía, vol. 1, pages 101-123.
    14. Hajilee, Massomeh & Stringer, Donna Y. & Hayes, Linda A., 2021. "On the link between the shadow economy and stock market development: An asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 303-316.
    15. Mai HASSAN & Friedrich SCHNEIDER, 2016. "Modelling the Egyptian Shadow Economy: A MIMIC model and A Currency Demand approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 309-339, June.
    16. Herranz, Moisés Meroño & Turino, Francesco, 2023. "Tax evasion, fiscal policy and public debt: Evidence from Spain," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(3).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    underground economy; shadow economy; hidden economy; black economy; cash-deposit-ratio; currency demand approach; MIMIC approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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