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Shadow Sovereign Ratings

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  • Canuto, Otaviano

    ()
    (World Bank)

  • Mohapatra, Sanket

    ()
    (World Bank)

  • Dilip Ratha

    ()
    (World Bank)

Abstract

Sovereign ratings are a necessary condition for countries to fully access international capital. Even if the sovereign government is not issuing bonds, the sovereign rating often acts as a ceiling for the private sector and can influence its international capital market access. However, 58 developing countries are still not rated by Standard and Poors, Moodys, and Fitch, the three international credit rating agencies. This premise presents an exercise to predict shadow sovereign ratings to estimate where unrated countries would lie on the credit spectrum if they were rated. Contrary to popular perception, unrated countries are not necessarily at the bottom of the rating spectrum.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The World Bank in its journal Economic Premise.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 63 (August)
Pages: 1-6

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Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep63

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Keywords: AAA; credit ratings; moody's; fitch; standard and poors; credit; credit ratings; World Bank; developing countries; soverign debt;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 7410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Alexander Lehmann, 2004. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Private Capital Flows to LowÔÇÉincome Countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 252-268.
  4. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings "Lite"? T+L3712he Impact of Sovereign Ratingson Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Kraay, Aart & Nehru, Vikram, 2004. "When is external debt sustainable?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3200, The World Bank.
  7. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
  8. Lee, Suk Hun, 1993. "Are the credit ratings assigned by bankers based on the willingness of LDC borrowers to repay?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 349-359, April.
  9. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal K. & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2011. "Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Unrated Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 295-307, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Alfons Stemmer, 2012. "Assessing the relationship between Chinese capital flows and African debt sustainability," Post-Print dumas-00903799, HAL.
  2. Aliu, Armando, 2012. "International Migration and the European Union Relations in the Context of a Comparison of Western Balkans and North African Countries: Controlling Migration and Hybrid Model," MPRA Paper 38931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ibrahim Sirkeci & Jeffrey H. Cohen & Dilip Ratha, 2012. "Migration and Remittances during the Global Financial Crisis and Beyond," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13092, July.
  4. Basu, Kaushik & De, Supriyo & Ratha, Dilip & Timmer, Hans, 2013. "Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6641, The World Bank.

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