When is external debt sustainable?
AbstractThis paper examines the determinants of"debt distress,"which they define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (1) significant arrears on external debt, (2) Paris Club rescheduling, and (3) nonconcessional International Monetary Fund lending. Using probit regressions, the authors find that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. They show that these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and that their core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. The authors also explore the quantitative implications of these results for the lending strategies of official creditors.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3200.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Strategic Debt Management; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; Strategic Debt Management; Banks&Banking Reform; Environmental Economics&Policies; Housing Finance;
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
- Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Default, currency crises, and sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 13917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2002.
"Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity,"
CeMMAP working papers
CWP18/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54.
- Nancy Birdsall & Stijn Claessens & Ishac Diwan, 2002.
"Policy Selectivity Foregone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa,"
17, Center for Global Development.
- Nancy Birdsall & Stijn Claessens & Ishac Diwan, 2003. "Policy Selectivity Forgone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(3), pages 409-435, December.
- Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
- Berg, Andrew & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1988.
"The debt crisis structural explanations of country performance,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 271-306, November.
- Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lloyd-Ellis, H. & McKenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1990. "Predicting the quantity of LDC debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 67-73, January.
- Lynn Aylward & Rupert Thorne, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund," IMF Working Papers 98/32, International Monetary Fund.
- Cohen, Daniel, 1996. "The sustainability of African debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1621, The World Bank.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.