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When is external debt sustainable?

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Author Info
Kraay, Aart
Nehru, Vikram

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Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of"debt distress,"which they define as periods in which countries resort to exceptional finance in any of three forms: (1) significant arrears on external debt, (2) Paris Club rescheduling, and (3) nonconcessional International Monetary Fund lending. Using probit regressions, the authors find that three factors explain a substantial fraction of the cross-country and time-series variation in the incidence of debt distress: the debt burden, the quality of policies and institutions, and shocks. They show that these results are robust to a variety of alternative specifications, and that their core specifications have substantial out-of-sample predictive power. The authors also explore the quantitative implications of these results for the lending strategies of official creditors.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3200.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3200

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Related research
Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Strategic Debt Management; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Economic Theory&Research; Strategic Debt Management; Banks&Banking Reform; Environmental Economics&Policies; Housing Finance;

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth & Savastano, Miguel, 2003. "Debt intolerance," MPRA Paper 13932, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & McKenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1990. "Predicting the quantity of LDC debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 67-73, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Paolo Manasse & Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings," NBER Working Papers 8738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. repec:rus:hseeco:123922 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Cohen, Daniel, 1996. "The sustainability of African debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1621, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lynn Aylward & Rupert Thorne, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund," IMF Working Papers 98/32, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Nancy Birdsall & Stijn Claessens & Ishac Diwan, 2002. "Policy Selectivity Foregone: Debt and Donor Behavior in Africa," Working Papers 17, Center for Global Development. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Machiko Nissanke & Benno Ferrarini, 2007. "Assessing the Aid Allocation and Debt Sustainability Framework: Working Towards Incentive Compatible Aid Contracts," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  2. Roberto S. Mariano & Delano Villanueva, 2005. "External Debt, Adjustment, and Growth," Working Papers 13-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2007. "The Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: New Evidence From A Panel Of Middle Eastern Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17/07, Monash University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ratha, Dilip & De, Prabal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2007. "Shadow sovereign ratings for unrated developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4269, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Cassimon, Denis & Moreno-Dodson, Blanca & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Debt Sustainability for Low-Income Countries: A Review of Standard and Alternative Concepts," MPRA Paper 11077, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Presbitero, Andrea F. & Arnone, Marco, 2006. "External debt sustainability and domestic debt in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries," MPRA Paper 1396, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Gul, Adnan, 2008. "Is external debt an effective way of bringing economic reforms?," MPRA Paper 10979, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marco Arnone & Luca Bandiera & Andrea Presbitero, 2005. "External Debt Sustainability: Theory and Empirical Evidence," International Finance 0512007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Flores Prieto, Pedro & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Andrade Olivas, Cesar, 2007. "Evidencia empirica sobre deuda externa, inversion, y crecimiento en Mexico, 1980-2003
    [Empirical evidence on foreign debt, investment, and growth in Mexico, 1980-2003]    ," MPRA Paper 9497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
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