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Does sovereign risk in local and foreign currency differ?

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  • Amstad, Marlene
  • Packer, Frank
  • Shek, Jimmy

Abstract

Sovereign debt in local currency has been considered safer than in foreign currency. The literature offers scant guidance as to why such a gap existed, or why it has slowly and steadily diminished over the past two decades. We suggest and empirically test five hypotheses. We find FX reserves, and original sin (greater financing in local currency) to consistently be robust determinants of the gaps in local and foreign currency ratings. As for why the gap has declined, we identify as important factors the surge in global reserves, and to a lesser extent the decline of original sin.

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  • Amstad, Marlene & Packer, Frank & Shek, Jimmy, 2020. "Does sovereign risk in local and foreign currency differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:101:y:2020:i:c:s0261560618306260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.102099
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    2. Wang,Dieter, 2021. "Natural Capital and Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9606, The World Bank.
    3. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
    5. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Aizenman, J. & Jinjarak, Y. & Park, D. & Zheng, H., 2021. "Good-bye original sin, hello risk on-off, financial fragility, and crises?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Vojtěch Siuda & Milan Szabo, 2021. "Measuring Sovereign Credit Risk of the EU countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 169-192.
    8. Claudio Borio & Juan Contreras & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2020. "Assessing the fiscal implications of banking crises," BIS Working Papers 893, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Angela Ifeanyi Ujunwa & Augustine Ujunwa & Emmanuel Onah & Nnenna Georgina Nwonye & Onyedikachi David Chukwunwike, 2021. "Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 590-607, December.
    12. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign risk; Local currency debt; Foreign currency debt; Credit ratings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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