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Sovereign defaults by currency denomination

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Jeanneret

    (HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

  • Slim Souissi

    (LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management (EA 7363) - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management)

Abstract

This paper explores the drivers of sovereign default in 100 countries over the period 1996–2012. We build a new data set of sovereign defaults and find that default events for local and foreign currency bonds are equally likely. However, governments default under different economic and financial conditions depending on the currency in which bonds are issued. The explained variation in default probability rises from 43% to 62% when we account for differences in currency denomination. We also provide evidence that global factors and market sentiment, which are known to drive sovereign spreads, do not help explain the probability of sovereign default. Hence, these factors appear to affect the price of sovereign credit risk, although not the risk itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Jeanneret & Slim Souissi, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Post-Print hal-03145032, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03145032
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.03.004
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dimic, Nebojsa & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens & Vulanovic, Milos, 2021. "The structure and degree of dependence in government bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Amstad, Marlene & Packer, Frank & Shek, Jimmy, 2020. "Does sovereign risk in local and foreign currency differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    3. Aitor Erce & Enrico Mallucci & Mattia Picarelli, 2021. "A Journey in the History of Sovereign Defaults on Domestic Law Public Debt," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 2106, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    4. Guillaume l'Oeillet, 2022. "Modern Monetary Theory: wrong ideas, real limits and blind spots. An overview of the critics [La Théorie Monétaire Moderne : idées fausses, vraies limites et angles morts. Un tour d’horizon des cri," Post-Print hal-03854814, HAL.
    5. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2019. "Inflation-linked public debt in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-334.
    6. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Sovereign debt in emerging market countries: not all of them are serial defaulters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(59), pages 6406-6443, December.
    7. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2017. "Domestic and External Sovereign Debt," Working Paper Series 345, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Gerald Epstein, 2020. "The Empirical and Institutional Limits of Modern Money Theory," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 772-780, December.
    9. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "Foreign Currency Intermediation: Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    10. Wenxin Du & Carolin E. Pflueger & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 22592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Li, Yulin, 2021. "Investor sentiment and sovereign bonds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    12. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    13. Yasin Kursat Onder & Enes Sunel, 2021. "Inflation-default trade-off without a nominal anchor: The case of Greece," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 55-78, January.
    14. Takefumi Yamazaki, 2018. "Financial friction sources in emerging economies: Structural estimation of sovereign default models," Discussion papers ron303, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    15. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ricardo Sabbadini, 2017. "Overcoming the Original Sin: Gains from Local Currency External Debt," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_27, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    17. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    18. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.

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