Effects of adopting inflation targeting regimes on inflation variability
AbstractThis paper investigates whether inflation-targeting programs have altered the pattern of inflation and its variability for five developed countries and four emerging economies implementing inflation-targeting programs. A GARCH specification is used to model inflation variability, which accounts for public perception of the future levels of inflation variability—conditional variance. We could not find lower conditional inflation expectations except for Australia, Chile and Sweden under various specifications. Moreover, the conditional variance decreases only for Chile and the UK. Therefore, the empirical support for the lower inflation and its variability for the inflation targeting regimes is limited.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.
Volume (Year): 375 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/
GARCH; Inflation targeting and inflation variability;
Other versions of this item:
- Hakan Berument & Ebru Yuksel, 2007. "Effects of Adopting Inflation Targeting Regimes on Inflation Variability," Departmental Working Papers 0702, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arestis, Philip & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade-Off between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 528-45, Special I.
- Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-34.
- Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
- Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2003.
"Is There A Trade-Off Between Inflation Variability And Output-Gap Variability in The EMU Countries?,"
- Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade-Off Between Inflation Variability and Output-Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November.
- Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is there a trade-off between inflation variability and output-gap variability in the EMU countries?," NIESR Discussion Papers 238, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2002. "Is There A Trade-Off Between Inflation Variability and Output-Gap Variability in The EMU Countries?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_359, Levy Economics Institute, The.
- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
- David Johnson, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation Targets on the Level of Expected Inflation in Five Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1076-1081, November.
- Berument, Hakan, 1999. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 207-18, May.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1987.
"An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 353-72, June.
- Richard T. Froyen & Roger N. Waud, 1987. "An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and SomeImplications for Real Output," NBER Working Papers 1460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Holland, A Steven, 1988. "Indexation and the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Real GNP," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 473-84, October.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
- Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
- Kiymaz, Halil & Berument, Hakan, 2003. "The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 363-380.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Hafer, R. W., 1986.
"Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 365-372.
- R. W. Hafer, 1985. "Inflation uncertainty and a test of the Friedman hypothesis," Working Papers 1985-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Holland, A Steven, 1986. "Wage Indexation and the Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Employment:An Empirical Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 235-43, March.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Naqvi, Bushra & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Framework: Is the story different for Asian Economies?," MPRA Paper 19546, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
- Jane M. Binner & Peter Tino & Jonathan Tepper & Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Graham Kendall, 2009.
"Does money matter in inflation forecasting?,"
2009-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Binner, J.M. & Tino, P. & Tepper, J. & Anderson, R. & Jones, B. & Kendall, G., 2010. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4793-4808.
- Siok Kun Sek & Wai Mun Har, 2012. "Does Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging East-Asian Economies?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(5), pages 599-608, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.