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Impact of the China–Australia FTA on global coal production and trade

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  • Xiang, Hongjin
  • Kuang, Yanxiang
  • Li, Chenhua

Abstract

Using a computable partial equilibrium model, this study provides a comprehensive and prospective empirical analysis of the economic impacts of the China–Australian Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) on global coal output, trade, consumption and welfare. Based on data from 2014, the simulated results indicate that ChAFTA has a significant trade creation effect. ChAFTA will increase Australia’s coal exports to China by 35.7% and China’s exports to Australia by 19.9%. However, the impacts of ChAFTA on global coal production and price are relatively limited. Results also demonstrate that ChAFTA will cause an annual net welfare loss of US$ 200 million for China and a net welfare gain of US$ 569.3 million for Australia. Moreover, Chinese consumers and Australian coal producers are the biggest beneficiaries of ChAFTA. Based on the research conclusions, we put forward some policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiang, Hongjin & Kuang, Yanxiang & Li, Chenhua, 2017. "Impact of the China–Australia FTA on global coal production and trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:1:p:65-78
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2017.01.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris A., 2019. "Assessing the inflation hedging potential of coal and iron ore in Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Xiang, Hongjin & Kuang, Yanxiang, 2020. "Who benefits from China’s coal subsidy policies? A computable partial equilibrium analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Huang, Rui & Chen, Guangwu & Lv, Guonian & Malik, Arunima & Shi, Xunpeng & Xie, Xiaotian, 2020. "The effect of technology spillover on CO2 emissions embodied in China-Australia trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Yoon Heo & Nguyen Khanh Doanh, 2020. "Is NAFTA Trade‐Creating or Trade‐Diverting? A System GMM Approach," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 39(3), pages 222-238, September.
    5. Timsina, Krishna P. & Culas, Richard J., 2020. "Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), July.
    6. Ding, Lili & Zhao, Zhongchao & Wang, Lei, 2022. "Probability density forecasts for natural gas demand in China: Do mixed-frequency dynamic factors matter?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    7. Krishna P. Timsina & Richard J. Culas, 2020. "Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 889-919, July.
    8. Wang, Wenya & Fan, Liwei & Li, Zhenfu & Zhou, Peng & Chen, Xue, 2021. "Measuring dynamic competitive relationship and intensity among the global coal importing trade," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China–Australia FTA; GSIM model; Global coal trade; Welfare effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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