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The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities

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  • Christoph E. Boehm
  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Abstract

When countries change most favored nation (MFN) tariffs, partners that trade on MFN terms experience plausibly exogenous tariff changes. Using this variation, we estimate the trade elasticity at short and long horizons with local projections. We find that the elasticity of tariff-exclusive trade flows is −0.76 in the short run, and approximately −2 in the long run. Our long-run estimates are smaller than typical in the literature, and it takes 7 to10 years to converge to the long run, implying that (i) the welfare gains from trade are high and (ii) there are substantial convexities in the costs of adjusting exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph E. Boehm & Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2023. "The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(4), pages 861-905, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:4:p:861-905
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210225
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    3. Mayer, Thierry & Head, Keith, 2021. "Poor Substitutes? Counterfactual methods in IO and Trade compared," CEPR Discussion Papers 16762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Pedro Dias Moreira & João Monteiro, 2023. "The Impact of a Higher Cost of Credit on Exporters: Evidence from a Change in Banking Regulation," Working Papers w202320, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
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    6. Vellore Arthi & Markus Lampe & Ashwin Nair & Kevin Hjortshøj, 2023. "Deliberate Surrender? The Impact of Interwar Indian Protection," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 23-47.
    7. Lukas Boer & Malte Rieth, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Import Tariffs and Trade Policy Uncertainty," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2072, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Fontagné, Lionel & Guimbard, Houssein & Orefice, Gianluca, 2022. "Tariff-based product-level trade elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Yingting Yi & Elena Zaurino, 2022. "Trade liberalisation and the extensive margin of differentiated goods: Evidence from China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2724-2747, September.
    10. Lukaszuk, Piotr & Torun, David, 2022. "Harmonizing the Harmonized System," Economics Working Paper Series 2212, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
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    14. Nils M. Gornemann & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Felipe Saffie, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Alessandria,George & Khan,Shafaat Yar & Khederlarian,Armen & Ruhl,KimJ. & Steinberg,Joseph B., 2021. "Trade-Policy Dynamics : Evidence from 60 Years of U.S.-China Trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9741, The World Bank.
    16. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    17. Werner Roeger & Paul J. J. Welfens, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of import tariffs in a model with multinational firms and foreign direct investment," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 245-266, May.
    18. Jackson, Karen & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2021. "Belt and road: The China dream?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Mariarosaria Comunale & Justas Dainauskas & Povilas Lastauskas, 2021. "What explains excess trade persistence? A theory of habits in the supply chains," CAMA Working Papers 2021-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    20. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    21. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Krebs, Oliver, 2023. "Der volkswirtschaftliche Schaden von Decoupling in Deutschland: Szenarien auf Bundes-, Kreis- und Sektorebene," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 273175, June.
    22. Grijalva, Diego F. & Uribe-Terán, Carlos & Gachet, Iván, 2024. "The Contractionary Effects of Protectionist Trade Policy in a Dollarized Economy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13358, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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