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Quantitative impacts of alternative East Asia Free Trade Areas: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) assessment

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  • Kitwiwattanachai, Anyarath
  • Nelson, Doug
  • Reed, Geoffrey
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    Abstract

    This paper analysis the relative economic effects of four East Asian Free Trade Area (FTA) options. A particular feature of the model, which is an extension from a standard CGE model, is the introduction of unemployment with the intention of assessing the changes in the real wage and unemployment in each region under each of those options. The simulation results suggest that a preferred strategy for member regions is the "East Asia FTA" multilateral agreement,1 which would yield higher gains in welfare and greater economic impacts than any of the other possible bilateral agreements - ASEAN-China, ASEAN-Japan and ASEAN-Korea. However, such an 'ideal' multilateral economic integration might be deterred by the uneasy relationship between Japan and other East Asian nations, reflecting their economic and political differences.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

    Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 286-301

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:2:p:286-301

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

    Related research

    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Free Trade Area Trade liberalisation East Asia;

    References

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    6. Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Arbache, Jorge Saba, 2003. "The Impacts of Trade on the Brazilian Labor Market: A CGE Model Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1581-1595, September.
    7. Fugazza, Marco & Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2008. "Non-tariff barriers in CGE models: How useful for policy?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 475-490.
    8. Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2007. "Poverty and inequality effects of a high growth scenario in South Africa: A dynamic microsimulation CGE analysis," Working Papers 04/2007, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    9. Haaland, Jan I., 1991. "Modeling general equilibrium in a small, open economy: A Norwegian example," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 571-594.
    10. Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "The Impact of a Customs Union with the European Union on Internal Migration in Turkey," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 349-372.
    11. Robert Küster & ingo Ellersdorfer & Ulrich Fahl, 2007. "A CGE-Analysis of Energy Policies Considering Labor Market Imperfections and Technology Specifications," Working Papers 2007.7, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-51, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mario Holzner, 2013. "Impact of Croatian EU Accession on Regional Trade Patterns," wiiw Policy Notes 10, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Shawn ARITA & TANAKA Kiyoyasu, 2013. "Regional Investment Liberalization and FDI," Discussion papers 13088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Winchester, Niven, 2009. "Is there a dirty little secret? Non-tariff barriers and the gains from trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 819-834, November.
    4. Bouët, Antoine & Berisha-Krasniqi, Valdete & Estrades, Carmen & Laborde, David, 2012. "Trade and investment in Latin America and Asia: Perspectives from further integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 193-210.
    5. Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2013. "Regional Trade Agreements and Enterprises in Southeast Asia," ADBI Working Papers 442, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Lee, Tsung-Chen & Chang, Young-Tae & Lee, Paul T.W., 2013. "Economy-wide impact analysis of a carbon tax on international container shipping," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 87-102.
    7. Wannaphong Durongkaveroj and Rossarin Osathanunkul & Rossarin Osathanunkul, 2013. "Regional multipliers of social accounting matrix and the effective eradication of poverty," The Empirical Econometrics and Quantitative Economics Letters, Faculty of Economics, Chiang Mai University, vol. 2(4), pages 39 - 52, December.
    8. Cheong, Inkyo, 2013. "Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Evaluation and Implications for East Asian Regionalism," ADBI Working Papers 428, Asian Development Bank Institute.

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