Anomalies in intertemporal choice, time-dependent uncertainty and expected utility - A common approach
AbstractVarious anomalies in intertemporal choice are explained within a common framework of time-dependent uncertainty and state-dependent expected utility: By considering temporary emotions in addition to the permanent wealth effects associated with the realization of delayed gains and losses, it can be shown that S-shaped probability weighting and hyperbolic discounting will be positively correlated traits, Constant relative risk aversion and time-dependent uncertainty are sufficient to generate a 'sign effect' (losses are discounted less than gains), a 'delay/speed-up' asymmetry (delays are discounted at higher/lower rates for gains/losses) and a 'magnitude effect' for losses (larger outcomes are discounted less). However, a 'reverse' magnitude effect develops for gains (larger outcomes are discounted more). The 'magnitude effect' for gains observed in experimental settings can be rationalized either by introducing various transaction costs or by postulating that, as expected gains/losses get larger, subjects 'think twice' and try to suppress the emotional bias consciously. As a corollary to the 'reverse' magnitude effect, a wealth effect is identified: being poorer, the same subject will be less patient with regard to gains and losses. The presence of pre-outcome emotions raises discount rates for short resolution lags.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Psychology.
Volume (Year): 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep
Hyperbolic time preferences Decision-making under uncertainty Probability weighting Intertemporal choice;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Helga Fehr-Duda & Manuele Gennaro & Renate Schubert, 2006. "Gender, Financial Risk, and Probability Weights," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 283-313, 05.
- Uri Benzion & Amnon Rapoport & Joseph Yagil, 1989. "Discount Rates Inferred from Decisions: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 270-284, March.
- Christopher Harris & David Laibson, 1999.
"Dynamic Choices of Hyperbolic Consumers,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1886, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
- Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
- Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
- Peter D Sozou, 2003. "On Hyperbolic Discounting and Uncertain Hazard Rates," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000775, David K. Levine.
- George Loewenstein & Richard H Thaler, 2003. "Anomalies: Intertemporal Choice," Levine's Working Paper Archive 618897000000000784, David K. Levine.
- Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-84, September.
- Larry Samuelson & Arthur J. Robson, 2007. "The Evolution of Intertemporal Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 496-500, May.
- Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- George F. Loewenstein, 1988. "Frames of Mind in Intertemporal Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 200-214, February.
- Antoine Bommier, 2001.
"Uncertain lifetime and intertemporal choice : risk aversion as a rationale for time discounting,"
Research Unit Working Papers
0108, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquee, INRA.
- Antoine Bommier, 2006. "Uncertain Lifetime And Intertemporal Choice: Risk Aversion As A Rationale For Time Discounting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1223-1246, November.
- Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
- Pamela K. Lattimore & Joanna R. Baker & A. Dryden Witte, 1992. "The Influence Of Probability on Risky Choice: A parametric Examination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Partha Dasgupta & Eric Maskin, 2004.
"Uncertainty and Hyperbolic Discounting,"
Economics Working Papers
0023, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
- Keren, Gideon & Roelofsma, Peter, 1995. "Immediacy and Certainty in Intertemporal Choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 287-297, September.
- William T. Harbaugh & Kate Krause & Lise Vesterlund, 1999.
"Risk attitudes of children and adults: choices over small and large probability gains and losses,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
1999-2, University of Oregon Economics Department.
- William Harbaugh & Kate Krause & Lise Vesterlund, 2002. "Risk Attitudes of Children and Adults: Choices Over Small and Large Probability Gains and Losses," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 53-84, June.
- Marjorie K. Shelley, 1993. "Outcome Signs, Question Frames and Discount Rates," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(7), pages 806-815, July.
- Lattimore, Pamela K. & Baker, Joanna R. & Witte, Ann D., 1992. "The influence of probability on risky choice: A parametric examination," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 377-400, May.
- Walther, Herbert, 2003. "Normal-randomness expected utility, time preference and emotional distortions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 253-266, October.
- Yoram Halevy, 2008.
"Strotz Meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1145-62, June.
- Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "Strotz meets Allais: Diminishing Impatience and the Certainty Effect," Microeconomics.ca working papers halevy-04-10-29-10-08-43, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 25 Feb 2014.
- Drazen Prelec & George Loewenstein, 1991. "Decision Making Over Time and Under Uncertainty: A Common Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(7), pages 770-786, July.
- Laibson, David, 1997.
"Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-77, May.
- Loewenstein, George & Prelec, Drazen, 1992. "Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 573-97, May.
- Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
- Cubitt, Robin P & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1998. "Dynamic Choice and the Common Ratio Effect: An Experimental Investigation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(450), pages 1362-80, September.
- Charles M. Harvey, 1986. "Value Functions for Infinite-Period Planning," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(9), pages 1123-1139, September.
- Patti Fisher, 2013. "Is There Evidence of Loss Aversion in Saving Behaviors in Spain?," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 41-51, March.
- Hedesström, Martin & Andersson, Maria & Gärling, Tommy & Biel, Anders, 2012. "Stock investors’ preference for short-term vs. long-term bonuses," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 137-142.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.