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Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem

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  • Tölö, Eero
  • Jokivuolle, Esa
  • Virén, Matti

Abstract

We construct a measure of a bank's relative creditworthiness from the Eurosystem's proprietary inter-bank loan data: average overnight borrowing rate relative to an overnight rate index (AOR). We then investigate the dynamic relationship between AOR and the credit default swap price relative to the corresponding market index of 60 banks during 2008–2013. Price discovery mainly takes place in the CDS market, but AOR also contributes to it. The lagged daily changes of AOR help predict CDS. This indicates that AOR includes private information, which the CDS market does not immediately incorporate. We further show that the private information advantage is concentrated on days of market stress and on banks, which mainly borrow from relationship lender banks. Such borrower banks are typically smaller, have weaker ratings, and are likely to reside in crisis countries. Competent authorities can use AOR as a complementary indicator of banks’ concurrent health.

Suggested Citation

  • Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Virén, Matti, 2017. "Do banks’ overnight borrowing rates lead their CDS price? Evidence from the Eurosystem," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 93-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinin:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfi.2017.05.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Tölö, Eero & Jokivuolle, Esa & Viren, Matti, 2019. "Has banks' monitoring of other banks strengthened post-crisis? Evidence from the European overnight market," Research Discussion Papers 22/2019, Bank of Finland.
    2. Eero Tölö & Esa Jokivuolle & Matti Viren, 2021. "Have Too-Big-to-Fail Expectations Diminished? Evidence from the European Overnight Interbank Market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 25-54, August.
    3. Kim Ristolainen, 2016. "The relationship between distance-to-default and CDS spreads as measures of default risk for European banks," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 121-143, June.
    4. Cottrell, Simon & Yu, Xiao & Delpachitra, Sarath & Ma, Yihong, 2021. "What determines wholesale funding costs of the global systemically important banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_022 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private information; Money markets; Overnight borrowing rates; Credit default swaps (CDS); Lead-lag relationship; TARGET2; Eurosystem; Early-warning indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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