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The economic significance of CDS price discovery

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Xiang

    (Deakin University)

  • Michael T. Chng

    (Xian-Jiaotong Liverpool University)

  • Victor Fang

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

Between 2005 and 2009, we document evident time-varying credit risk price discovery between the equity and credit default swap (CDS) markets for 174 US non-financial investment-grade firms. We test the economic significance of a simple portfolio strategy that utilizes fluctuation in CDS spreads as a trading signal to set stock positions, conditional on the CDS price discovery status of the reference entities. We show that a conditional portfolio strategy which updates the list of CDS-influenced firms over time, yields a substantively larger realized return net of transaction cost over the unconditional strategy. Furthermore, the conditional strategy’s Sharpe ratio outperforms a series of benchmark portfolios over the same trading period, including buy-and-hold, momentum and dividend yield strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Xiang & Michael T. Chng & Victor Fang, 2017. "The economic significance of CDS price discovery," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-30, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:48:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11156-015-0540-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-015-0540-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Florian Kiesel & Sascha Kolaric, 2018. "Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 653-672, February.
    2. Kiesel, F. & Kolaric, S., 2018. "Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 87386, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    3. Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler & Hai Lin, 2020. "The pricing of accruals quality in credit default swap spreads," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 1943-1977, September.
    4. Nan Hu & Ling Liu & Lu Zhu, 2018. "Credit default swap spreads and annual report readability," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 591-621, February.
    5. Saker Sabkha & Christian Peretti & Dorra Hmaied, 2019. "The Credit Default Swap market contagion during recent crises: international evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 1-46, July.
    6. Procasky, William J. & Yin, Anwen, 2023. "Identifying the true nature of price discovery and cross-market informational flow in the investment grade CDS and equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price discovery; CDS spread; Credit risk; Portfolio strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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