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Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets

Author

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  • Florian Kiesel

    (Technische Universität Darmstadt)

  • Sascha Kolaric

    (Technische Universität Darmstadt)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the importance of distinguishing between watch-preceded and direct rating changes for the credit default swap (CDS) market by examining a total of 2991 rating change announcements, 1526 watchlist placement announcements, and 430 rating affirmations following watchlist placements. The results show that watch-preceded downgrades do not lead to significant CDS market reactions, while direct downgrades are associated with a significant increase in CDS spread levels. Likewise, we document that watchlist placements for downgrade lead to increases in firms’ CDS spreads. CDS markets do not react to rating upgrades but watchlist placements for upgrade result in an immediate decrease in CDS spreads. Rating affirmations following watchlist placements for downgrade lead to slight reductions in CDS spreads, while affirmations following watchlist placements for upgrade have no effect on CDS spreads. These findings demonstrate the importance for empirical research on the interaction between credit markets and rating announcements to differentiate between watch-preceded and direct rating changes, particularly for rating downgrades.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Kiesel & Sascha Kolaric, 2018. "Measuring the effect of watch-preceded and direct rating changes: a note on credit markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 653-672, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0641-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-017-0641-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Ginevra Marandola & Rossella Mossucca, 2021. "When did the stock market start to react less to downgrades by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 1-45, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps (CDS); Credit rating; Credit watchlist; Credit quality; Event study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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