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The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market

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  • May, Anthony D.
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    Abstract

    I study the information content of bond ratings changes using daily corporate bond data from TRACE. Abnormal bond returns over a two-day event window that includes the downgrade (upgrade) are negative (positive) and statistically significant, although the reaction to upgrades is economically small. Monthly abnormal bond returns around downgrades and upgrades are statistically significant but overstate the magnitude of the reaction relative to two-day abnormal returns. Unlike the bond market, the stock market reaction to upgrades is statistically insignificant. Evidence suggests that the differing inferences on the effect of upgrades in the two markets can be attributed to wealth transfer effects rather than relative market inefficiencies. In the cross-section, the bond market response is stronger for rating changes that appear more surprising, rating changes of lower rated firms, and upgrades that move the firm from speculative grade to investment grade.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 2822-2836

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2822-2836

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    Keywords: Corporate bonds Bond prices Bond rating changes;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Pilar Abad & M. Dolores Robles & Gare Cuervo, 2013. "Changes in Corporate Debt Ratings and Stock Liquidity: Evidence from the Spanish Market," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. Schaetzle, Dominik, 2011. "Ratingagenturen in der neoklassischen Finanzierungstheorie: Eine Auswertung empirischer Studien zum Informationsgehalt von Ratings," Arbeitspapiere 110, Westfälsche Wilhelms-Universität Münster (WWU), Institut für Genossenschaftswesen.
    3. Pilar Abad Romero & María Dolores Robles Fernández, 2012. "Credit rating agencies and unsystematic risk: Is there a linkage?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2012-17, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    4. Akhtar, Shumi & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1239-1249, May.
    5. Chan, Ngai Hang & Wong, Hoi Ying & Zhao, Jing, 2012. "Structural model of credit migration," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3477-3490.

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