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Sentiment and stock prices: The case of aviation disasters

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  • Kaplanski, Guy
  • Levy, Haim
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    Abstract

    Behavioral economic studies reveal that negative sentiment driven by bad mood and anxiety affects investment decisions and may hence affect asset pricing. In this study we examine the effect of aviation disasters on stock prices. We find evidence of a significant negative event effect with an average market loss of more than $60 billion per aviation disaster, whereas the estimated actual loss is no more than $1 billion. In two days a price reversal occurs. We find the effect to be greater in small and riskier stocks and in firms belonging to less stable industries. This event effect is also accompanied by an increase in the perceived risk: implied volatility increases after aviation disasters without an increase in actual volatility.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 95 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 2 (February)
    Pages: 174-201

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:95:y:2010:i:2:p:174-201

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Event effect Reversal effect Market sentiment Behavioral finance Disasters;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    2. Ho, Jerry C. & Qiu, Mei & Tang, Xiaojun, 2013. "Do airlines always suffer from crashes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 113-117.
    3. Shan, Liwei & Gong, Stephen X., 2012. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Wenchuan Earthquake," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 36-47.
    4. Walker, Thomas John & Walker, Marcus Glenn & Thiengtham, Dolruedee Nuttanontra & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2014. "The role of aviation laws and legal liability in aviation disasters: A financial market perspective," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 51-65.
    5. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 26, April.
    6. Hwang, Byoung-Hyoun, 2011. "Country-specific sentiment and security prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 382-401, May.
    7. : Constantinos Antonio & : John A. Doukas & : Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2013. "Investor Sentiment and Beta Pricing," Working Papers wpn13-05, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    8. Alessandro Bucciol & Luca Zarri, 2013. "Financial Risk Aversion and Personal Life History," Working Papers 05/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    9. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2013. "European Markets’ Reactions to Exogenous Shocks: A High Frequency Data Analysis of the 2005 London Bombings," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 154-167, November.
    10. : John A. Doukas & Constantinos Antoniou & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2011. "Sentiment and Momentum," Working Papers wpn11-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    11. Akhtar, Shumi & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1239-1249, May.
    12. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    13. Kim, Jun Sik & Ryu, Doojin & Seo, Sung Won, 2014. "Investor sentiment and return predictability of disagreement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 166-178.
    14. Narat Charupat & Richard Deaves & Travis Derouin & Marcelo Klotzle & Peter Miu, 2013. "Emotional balance and probability weighting," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(1), pages 17-41, July.

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