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Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis

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  • Schroth, Enrique
  • Suarez, Gustavo A.
  • Taylor, Lucian A.

Abstract

We use the 2007 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) crisis as a laboratory to study the determinants of debt runs. Our model features dilution risk: maturing short-term lenders demand higher yields in compensation for being diluted by future lenders, making runs more likely. The model explains the observed tenfold increase in yield spreads leading to runs and the positive relation between yield spreads and future runs. Results from structural estimation show that runs are very sensitive to leverage, asset values, and asset liquidity, but less sensitive to the degree of maturity mismatch, the strength of guarantees, and asset volatility.

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  • Schroth, Enrique & Suarez, Gustavo A. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2014. "Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 164-189.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:112:y:2014:i:2:p:164-189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2014.01.002
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    23. Fabrice Tourre, 2016. "Debt Runs and the Value of Liquidity Reserves," 2016 Meeting Papers 709, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Xu Tian, 2022. "Uncertainty and the Shadow Banking Crisis: Estimates from a Dynamic Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(2), pages 1469-1496, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Runs; Financial crises; Structural estimation; Asset-backed commercial paper;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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