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Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

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  • Xue-Zhong He
  • Eva Lütkebohmert
  • Yajun Xiao

Abstract

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Xue-Zhong He & Eva Lütkebohmert & Yajun Xiao, 2017. "Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 455-469, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:3:p:455-469
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1203071
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Minca & Johannes Wissel, 2020. "Dynamic Leveraging–Deleveraging Games," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 93-114, January.
    2. Galya Taseva, 2020. "Determinants of Short-term Liabilities of Financially Distressed SME-s," Business Management, D. A. Tsenov Academy of Economics, Svishtov, Bulgaria, issue 1 Year 20, pages 5-24.
    3. Dávid Zoltán Szabó & Kata Váradi, 2022. "Margin requirements based on a stochastic correlation model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1797-1820, October.
    4. Jiang, Shanshan & Fan, Hong, 2018. "Credit risk contagion coupling with sentiment contagion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 186-202.
    5. Faiza Sajjad & Muhammad Zakaria, 2018. "Credit Ratings and Liquidity Risk for the Optimization of Debt Maturity Structure," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-16, May.

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