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Funding Liquidity, Debt Tenor Structure, and Creditor's Belief: An Exogenous Dynamic Debt Run Model

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  • Gechun Liang
  • Eva L\"utkebohmert
  • Wei Wei

Abstract

We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume the firm finances its risky assets by issuing short- and long-term debt. Short-term debt can have either a discrete or a more realistic staggered tenor structure. At rollover dates of short-term debt, creditors face a dynamic coordination problem. We show that a unique threshold strategy (i.e., a debt run barrier) exists for short-term creditors to decide when to withdraw their funding, and this strategy is closely related to the solution of a non-standard optimal stopping time problem with control constraints. We decompose the total credit risk into an insolvency component and an illiquidity component based on such an endogenous debt run barrier together with an exogenous insolvency barrier.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1209.3513
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1209.3513.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
Date of revision: Sep 2013
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1209.3513

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Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June.
  2. Ing-Haw Cheng & Konstantin Milbradt, 2012. "The Hazards of Debt: Rollover Freezes, Incentives, and Bailouts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1070-1110.
  3. Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
  4. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Wei Xiong & Zhiguo He, 2010. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 98, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Bianca Hilberink & L.C.G. Rogers, 2002. "Optimal capital structure and endogenous default," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 237-263.
  7. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
  8. Hayne E. Leland., 1998. "Agency Costs, Risk Management, and Capital Structure," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-278, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  10. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Itay Goldstein & Ady Pauzner, 2005. "Demand-Deposit Contracts and the Probability of Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1293-1327, 06.
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