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Self-Fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the US Life Insurance Industry

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  • Nathan Foley-Fisher
  • Borghan Narajabad
  • Stéphane Verani

Abstract

The interaction of worsening fundamentals and strategic complementarities among investors renders identification of self-fulfilling runs challenging. We propose a dynamic model to show how exogenous variation in firms’ liability structures can be exploited to obtain variation in the strength of strategic complementarities. Applying this identification strategy to puttable securities offered by US life insurers, we find that at least 40% of the $18 billion run on life insurers by institutional investors during the 2007–8 crisis was amplified by self-fulfilling expectations. Our findings suggest that other contemporaneous runs in shadow banking by institutional investors may have had a self-fulfilling component.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stéphane Verani, 2020. "Self-Fulfilling Runs: Evidence from the US Life Insurance Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(9), pages 3520-3569.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/708817
    DOI: 10.1086/708817
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    1. Taking the **Sock** out of FSOC
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-10-29 12:24:21

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristian Blickle & Markus Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2020. "Micro-evidence from a System-wide Financial Meltdown: The German Crisis of 1931," Working Papers 275, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Anna Paulson & Richard Rosen, 2016. "The Life Insurance Industry and Systemic Risk: A Bond Market Perspective," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 155-174, October.
    3. Barattieri, Alessandro & Moretti, Laura & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2021. "Banks funding, leverage, and investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 148-171.
    4. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mr. Divya Kirti, 2017. "When Gambling for Resurrection is Too Risky," IMF Working Papers 2017/180, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Sultanum, Bruno, 2018. "Financial fragility and over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 616-658.
    8. Ettore Panetti, 2016. "Bank Runs: Theories and Policy Applications," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. E. Panetti & LG Deidda, 2018. "Banks' Liquidity Management and Financial Fragility," Working Paper CRENoS 201809, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    10. E. Panetti & LG Deidda, 2017. "Banks' Liquidity Management and Systemic Risk," Working Paper CRENoS 201705, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    11. Mark Egan & Shan Ge & Johnny Tang, 2022. "Conflicting Interests and the Effect of Fiduciary Duty: Evidence from Variable Annuities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(12), pages 5334-5386.
    12. Pei Cheng Yu & Stephane Verani, 2020. "What's Wrong with Annuity Markets?," Discussion Papers 2020-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. Wei, Bin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2020. "Liquidity backstops and dynamic debt runs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. Elena Mattana & Ettore Panetti, 2021. "The Welfare Costs of Self‐Fulfilling Bank Runs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 401-440, March.
    15. Bruno Sultanum, 2016. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Diamond-Dybvig Banking Model," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Q4, pages 261-279.
    16. Düll, Robert & König, Felix & Ohls, Jana, 2017. "On the exposure of insurance companies to sovereign risk − portfolio investments and market forces 1," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83195, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. W. Scott Frame, 2016. "The federal home loan bank system and U.S. housing finance," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Zeqiong Huang & Rahul Vashishtha, 2020. "Liquidity Transformation and Fragility in the US Banking Sector," NBER Working Papers 27815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Panetti, Ettore, 2022. "Banks’ liquidity provision and panic runs with recursive preferences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    21. Chia‐Chun Chiang & Greg Niehaus, 2020. "Correlated Trading by Life Insurers and Its Impact on Bond Prices," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 87(3), pages 597-625, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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