IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jetheo/v180y2019icp304-335.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning about analysts

Author

Listed:
  • Rüdiger, Jesper
  • Vigier, Adrien

Abstract

We examine an analyst with career concerns making cheap talk recommendations to a sequence of traders, each of whom possesses private information concerning the analyst's ability. The recommendations of the analyst influence asset prices that are then used to evaluate the analyst. An endogeneity problem thus arises. In particular, if the reputation of the analyst is sufficiently high then an incompetent but strategic analyst is able to momentarily hide her type. An equilibrium in which the market eventually learns the analyst type always exists. However, under some conditions, an equilibrium also exists in which the incompetent analyst is able to hide her type forever.

Suggested Citation

  • Rüdiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien, 2019. "Learning about analysts," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 304-335.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:180:y:2019:i:c:p:304-335
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.01.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022053119300055
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jet.2019.01.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
    2. Boris Groysberg & Paul M. Healy & David A. Maber, 2011. "What Drives Sell‐Side Analyst Compensation at High‐Status Investment Banks?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 969-1000, September.
    3. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    4. Marco Ottaviani & Giuseppe Moscarini & Lones Smith, 1998. "Social learning in a changing world," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 11(3), pages 657-665.
    5. Cipriani Marco & Guarino Antonio, 2008. "Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, October.
    6. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2006. "Informational cascades with endogenous prices: The role of risk aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 109-120, February.
    7. Xavier Vives, 1993. "How Fast do Rational Agents Learn?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(2), pages 329-347.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    9. Roger K. Loh & René M. Stulz, 2011. "When Are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(2), pages 593-627.
    10. Sant, Rajiv & Zaman, Mir A., 1996. "Market reaction to Business Week 'Inside Wall Street' column: A self-fulfilling prophecy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 617-643, May.
    11. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    12. Andreas Park & Hamid Sabourian, 2011. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 973-1026, July.
    13. Vives Xavier, 1995. "The Speed of Information Revelation in a Financial Market Mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 178-204, October.
    14. Lones Smith & Peter Sorensen, 2000. "Pathological Outcomes of Observational Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 371-398, March.
    15. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    16. Chari, V. V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 2004. "Financial crises as herds: overturning the critiques," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 128-150, November.
    17. Roland Benabou & Guy Laroque, 1992. "Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 921-958.
    18. Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea, 2008. "Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 83-113, November.
    19. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    20. Terrill Keasler & Chris McNeil, 2010. "Mad Money stock recommendations: market reaction and performance," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 34(1), pages 1-22, January.
    21. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-748, September.
    22. Lily Fang & Ayako Yasuda, 2014. "Are Stars’ Opinions Worth More? The Relation Between Analyst Reputation and Recommendation Values," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 235-269, December.
    23. Jesper Rüdiger & Adrien Vigier, 2020. "Who Acquires Information in Dealer Markets?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1145-1176, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Silva, 2020. "An informational Ponzi-scheme," Documentos de Trabajo 539, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    2. Silva, Francisco, 2022. "The value of uncertainty in determining an expert's source of expertise," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 379-388.
    3. Camara, Fanny, 2019. "Avoiding Judgement by Recommending Inaction: Beliefs Manipulation and Reputational Concerns," CEPR Discussion Papers 14149, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jesper Rudiger & Adrien Vigier, 2015. "Pundits and Quacks," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1997, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.
    4. Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien, 2013. "Financial Experts, Asset Prices and Reputation," MPRA Paper 51784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dieter Nautz, "undated". "Herding in financial markets: Bridging the gap between theory and evidence," BDPEMS Working Papers 2013002, Berlin School of Economics.
    6. Eyster, Erik & Galeotti, Andrea & Kartik, Navin & Rabin, Matthew, 2014. "Congested observational learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 519-538.
    7. Puput Tri Komalasari & Marwan Asri & Bernardinus M. Purwanto & Bowo Setiyono, 2022. "Herding behaviour in the capital market: What do we know and what is next?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 72(3), pages 745-787, September.
    8. Dasgupta, Amil & Prat, Andrea, 2008. "Information aggregation in financial markets with career concerns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 83-113, November.
    9. Christophe Bisière & Jean-Paul Décamps & Stefano Lovo, 2015. "Risk Attitude, Beliefs Updating, and the Information Content of Trades: An Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1378-1397, June.
    10. Cao, H. Henry & Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David, 2011. "Taking the road less traveled by: Does conversation eradicate pernicious cascades?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1418-1436, July.
    11. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    12. Makoto Nirei & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Beauty Contests and Fat Tails in Financial Markets," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 024, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    13. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1427-1443, December.
    14. Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2008. "When Herding and Contrarianism Foster Market Efficiency: A Financial Trading Experiment," Economic Research Papers 269852, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    15. Christopher Boortz, 2016. "Irrational Exuberance and Herding in Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-016, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    16. Wang, Guocheng & Wang, Yanyi, 2018. "Herding, social network and volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 74-81.
    17. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2009. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 206-233, March.
    18. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Raphaëlle Bellando & Sébastien Ringuedé & Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, 2013. "Herding in French stock markets: Empirical evidence from equity mutual funds," Post-Print halshs-01066726, HAL.
    19. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2014. "Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 224-251, January.
    20. Decamps, Jean-Paul & Lovo, Stefano, 2006. "Informational cascades with endogenous prices: The role of risk aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 109-120, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analysts; Career concerns; Reputations; Social learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:180:y:2019:i:c:p:304-335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622869 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.