Herding and Contrarian Behaviour in Financial Markets
AbstractRational herd behavior and informationally efficient security prices have long been considered to be mutually exclusive but for exceptional cases. In this paper we describe the conditions on the underlying information structure that are necessary and sufficient for informational herding and contrarianism. In a standard sequential security trading model, subject to sufficient noise trading, people herd if and only if, loosely, their information is sufficiently dispersed so that they consider extreme outcomes more likely than moderate ones. Likewise, people act as contrarians if and only if their information leads them to concentrate on middle values. Both herding and contrarianism generate more volatile prices, and they lower liquidity. They are also resilient phenomena, although by themselves herding trades are self enforcing whereas contrarian trades are self-defeating. We complete the characterization by providing conditions for the absence of herding and contrarianism.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge in its series Cambridge Working Papers in Economics with number 0939.
Date of creation: 12 Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/index.htm
Social learning; herding; contrarians; asset price volatility; market transparency;
Other versions of this item:
- Andreas Park & Hamid Sabourian, 2011. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 973-1026, 07.
- D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Hibiki Ichiue & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Yosuke Shigemi, 2012.
"Financial markets forecasts revisited: are they rational, herding or bold?,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
106, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Ippei Fujiwara & Hibiki Ichiue & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Yosuke Shigemi, 2012. "Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Simon Jurkatis & Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Correlated Trades and Herd Behavior in the Stock Market," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-035, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Andreas Park & Daniel Sgroi, 2008.
"When Herding and Contrarianism Foster Market Efficiency: A Financial Trading Experiment,"
tecipa-316, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2008. "When Herding and Contrarianism Foster Market Efficiency : A Financial Trading Experiment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 854, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Rossi, S & Tinn, K, 2013. "Man or Machine? Rational trading without information about fundamentals," Working Papers 12194, Imperial College, London, Imperial College Business School.
- Bhaduri, Saumitra N. & Mahapatra, Siddharth D., 2013.
"Applying an alternative test of herding behavior: A case study of the Indian stock market,"
Journal of Asian Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 43-52.
- Saumitra, Bhaduri & Sidharth, Mahapatra, 2012. "Applying an alternative test of herding behavior: a case study of the Indian stock market," MPRA Paper 38014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Baddeley, M. & Burke, C. & Schultz, W. & Tobler, P., 2012. "Herding in Financial Behaviour: A Behavioural and Neuroeconomic Analysis of Individual Differences," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1225, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Andrey Kudryavtsev & Gil Cohen & Shlomit Hon-Snir, 2013. "“Rational” or “Intuitive”: Are Behavioral Biases Correlated Across Stock Market Investors?," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.
- Paul Hofmarcher & Kurt Hornik, 2013. "First Significant Digits and the Credit Derivative Market During the Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 7(2), June.
- Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2010. "Information aggregation in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 379-398, December.
- Rudiger, Jesper & Vigier, Adrien, 2013. "Financial Experts, Asset Prices and Reputation," MPRA Paper 51784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Testa, Alessia, 2012. "Path-Dependent Behavior with Asymmetric Information about Traders' Types," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 388, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Park, Andreas & Sgroi, Daniel, 2012.
"Herding, contrarianism and delay in financial market trading,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1020-1037.
- Park, A. & Sgroi, D., 2009. "Herding, Contrarianism and Delay in Financial Market Trading," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0941, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Rational Speculators, Contrarians and Excess Volatility," MPRA Paper 43490, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kremer, Stephanie & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "Causes and consequences of short-term institutional herding," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1676-1686.
- Christopher Boortz & Simon Jurkatis & Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Institutional Herding in Financial Markets: New Evidence through the Lens of a Simulated Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1336, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Walther, A., 2012. "Asset price manipulation with several traders," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1242, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
- Kurz, Claudia & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2013. "What determines the dynamics of absolute excess returns on stock markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 342-346.
- Boortz, Christopher K. & Jurkatis, Simon & Kremer, Stephanie & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "The impact of information risk and market stress on institutional trading: New evidence through the lens of a simulated herd model," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79728, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Christopher Boortz & Simon Jurkatis & Stephanie Kremer & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Herding in financial markets: Bridging the gap between theory and evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Howard Cobb).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.