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The hot hand and the cold hand in professional golf

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  • Livingston, Jeffrey A.
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    Abstract

    Previous studies have shown that people believe in the existence of the “hot hand” effect: recent good performances make one more confident and lead to more good performances. However, economists have found little evidence that such an effect is present. Motivated by models of momentum from psychology, this study examines hole-by-hole performances of four types of professional golfers, which is perhaps the ideal environment to evaluate whether such an effect exists. The results show that evidence consistent with the existence of hot hand and cold hand can be masked by looking only at overall mean impacts because the existence and magnitude of the effects can vary with the player's experience.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268111002496
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

    Volume (Year): 81 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 172-184

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:81:y:2012:i:1:p:172-184

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

    Related research

    Keywords: Hot hand effect; Golf; Law of small numbers; Decision making;

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    References

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    1. Dohmen, Thomas, 2005. "Do Professionals Choke Under Pressure?," IZA Discussion Papers 1905, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2007. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies:Theory and Applications," FMG Discussion Papers dp578, Financial Markets Group.
    3. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-61, December.
    4. Brown, William O & Sauer, Raymond D, 1993. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the Hot Hand? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1377-86, December.
    5. Abrevaya, Jason, 2002. "Ladder tournaments and underdogs: lessons from professional bowling," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 87-101, January.
    6. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
    7. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
    8. James Sundali & Rachel Croson, 2006. "Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler's fallacy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 1-12, July.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kniffin, Kevin M. & Mihalek, Vince, 2014. "Within-series momentum in hockey: No returns for running up the score," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 400-402.

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