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Correcting For Bias In Hot Hand Analysis: Analyzing Performance Streaks In Youth Golf

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Cotton

    (Queen's University)

  • Frank McIntyre

    (Rutgers University)

  • Joseph P. Price

    (Brigham Young University)

Abstract

This paper illustrates the problems that arise with traditional tests for the hot hand and proposes instead using a consistent dynamic panel data estimator, which corrects for these problems and is easy to implement. Applying this estimator to a largedataset of amateur, youth golfers, we find no evidence of either hot or cold hand effects, even among the youngest golfers. When we restrict attention to the most-amateur of the golfers in our data, we do see weak evidence of a small hot hand. Thus casual athletes may experience small hot hands, but the effect does not persist among more serious athletes. This may give insight into whythe belief in the hot hand in professional sports exists, even when the evidence suggestsotherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Cotton & Frank McIntyre & Joseph P. Price, 2016. "Correcting For Bias In Hot Hand Analysis: Analyzing Performance Streaks In Youth Golf," Working Paper 1366, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:1366
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econ.queensu.ca/sites/econ.queensu.ca/files/qed_wp_1366.pdf
    File Function: First version 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Surprised by the Gambler’s and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers," Working Papers 552, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic panel; Hot hand; Sports economics; performance streaks; amateurs versus professionals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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