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School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method

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  • Alfano, Vincenzo
  • Ercolano, Salvatore
  • Cicatiello, Lorenzo

Abstract

Schools have been central in the debate about COVID-19. On the one hand, many have argued that they should be kept open, given their importance to youngsters and the future of the country, and the effort many countries have made in establishing protocols to keep them safe. On the other hand, it has been argued that open schools further the spread of the virus, given that these are places with large-scale interaction between teenagers and adults accompanying their children, as well as a major source of congestion on public transportation. We aim to identify the effect of school openings on the spread of COVID-19 contagion. Italy offers an interesting quasi-experimental setting in this regard due to the scattered openings that schools have experienced. By means of a quantitative analysis, employing a synthetic control method approach, we find that Bolzano, the first province in Italy to open schools after the summer break, had far more cases than its synthetic counterfactual, built from a donor pool formed from the other Italian provinces. Results confirm the hypothesis that despite the precautions, opening schools causes an increase in the infection rate, and this must be taken into account by policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Cicatiello, Lorenzo, 2021. "School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(9), pages 1200-1207.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:hepoli:v:125:y:2021:i:9:p:1200-1207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2021.06.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele Ciminelli & Sílvia Garcia‐Mandicó, 2022. "When and how do business shutdowns work? Evidence from Italy's first COVID‐19 wave," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 1823-1843, September.
    2. Mei, Yingdan & Liu, Wenbo & Wang, Jianliang & Bentley, Yongmei, 2022. "Shale gas development and regional economic growth: Evidence from Fuling, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    3. Lee, Ryan C. & Sood, Neeraj & Deva, Sohini & Macedo, Marisol & Soto, Daniel W. & Unger, Jennifer B., 2023. "Evaluation of a COVID-19 rapid antigen testing program among student athletes in a public high school district," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Bonander, Carl & Ekman, Mats & Jakobsson, Niklas, 2022. "Vaccination nudges: A study of pre-booked COVID-19 vaccinations in Sweden," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    5. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2022. "Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    6. Alfano, Vincenzo & Guarino, Massimo, 2023. "The effect of self-esteem on the spread of a pandemic. A cross-country analysis of the role played by self-esteem in the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    7. Janbani, Zahra & Osmani, Freshteh, 2023. "Performance of two educational approaches in increasing knowledge of high-school students about COVID-19 during the first wave of pandemic," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    8. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Pinto, Mauro, 2022. "Carrot and stick: Economic support and stringency policies in response to COVID-19," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    9. Alfano, Vincenzo & Cicatiello, Lorenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2023. "Assessing the effectiveness of mandatory outdoor mask policy: The natural experiment of Campania," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Lopez-Medoza, Hector & González-Álvarez, Maria A. & Montañés, Antonio, 2023. "Assessing the effectiveness of international government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," MPRA Paper 117826, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Work ethics, stay-at-home measures and COVID-19 diffusion," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(5), pages 893-901, July.
    12. Mingolla, Stefano & Lu, Zhongming, 2022. "Impact of implementation timing on the effectiveness of stay-at-home requirement under the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from the Italian Case," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(6), pages 504-511.
    13. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "Does social capital enforce social distancing? The role of bridging and bonding social capital in the evolution of the pandemic," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(3), pages 839-859, October.
    14. Giovanni Busetta & Maria Gabriella Campolo & Demetrio Panarello, 2023. "Economic expectations and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic: a one-year longitudinal evaluation on Italian university students," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 59-76, February.
    15. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 503-523, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Synthetic control method; School openings; Italy; Coronavirus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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