IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v152y2023ics1389934123000692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does China's natural forest logging ban affect the stability of the timber import trade network?

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Qian
  • Cheng, Baodong
  • Diao, Gang
  • Tao, Chenlu
  • Wang, Can

Abstract

China's logging ban in natural forests (logging ban hereafter) is beneficial to domestic natural forest conservation, but the ban imposes uncertainties on the stability of the timber import trade network (network stability hereafter). Determining the effect of the logging ban on China's network stability is essential for developing rational and effective timber trade policies and sustainable forest management. We establish an analytical framework to investigate network stability based on the combination of network structure and sustainable forest management, employing the synthetic control method to examine the impact of the logging ban on network stability in China. The results reveal that the logging ban has a detrimental impact on China's network stability by affecting resource sourcing and cost stability. China's network status also faces instability risk following the implementation of the logging ban. Growing reliance on the global timber market as a result of the logging ban could aggravate the unsustainable risk of China's timber sources. Furthermore, the logging ban may weaken China's negotiating position in global timber markets, giving rise to larger trade cost fluctuations and uncertainties. This study provides policy recommendations for guiding timber import activities to mitigate the negative impact of the logging ban, which could help to strengthen network stability for China and promote sustainable forest operations.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Qian & Cheng, Baodong & Diao, Gang & Tao, Chenlu & Wang, Can, 2023. "Does China's natural forest logging ban affect the stability of the timber import trade network?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:152:y:2023:i:c:s1389934123000692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102974
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934123000692
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.102974?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jing Wang & Liang Feng & Paul I. Palmer & Yi Liu & Shuangxi Fang & Hartmut Bösch & Christopher W. O’Dell & Xiaoping Tang & Dongxu Yang & Lixin Liu & ChaoZong Xia, 2020. "Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data," Nature, Nature, vol. 586(7831), pages 720-723, October.
    2. Bougheas, Spiros, 2022. "Contagion in networks: Stability and efficiency," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 64-77.
    3. Dieguez, Laura & Sotirov, Metodi, 2021. "FSC sustainability certification as green-lane for legality verification under the EUTR? Changes and policy learning at the interplay of private governance and public policy," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Arto, Iñaki & Cazcarro, Ignacio & Garmendia, Eneko & Ruiz, Itxaso & Sanz, María J., 2022. "A new accounting framework for assessing forest footprint of nations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    5. Olper, Alessandro & Curzi, Daniele & Swinnen, Johan, 2018. "Trade liberalization and child mortality: A Synthetic Control Method," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 394-410.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    7. P. Jean-Jacques Herings & Ana Mauleon & Vincent Vannetelbosch, 2019. "Stability of networks under horizon-K farsightedness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(1), pages 177-201, July.
    8. Jing Wang & Liang Feng & Paul I. Palmer & Yi Liu & Shuangxi Fang & Hartmut Bösch & Christopher W. O’Dell & Xiaoping Tang & Dongxu Yang & Lixin Liu & ChaoZong Xia, 2020. "Publisher Correction: Large Chinese land carbon sink estimated from atmospheric carbon dioxide data," Nature, Nature, vol. 588(7837), pages 19-19, December.
    9. Nie, Fei & Li, Jian & Bi, Xiang & Li, Gucheng, 2022. "Agricultural trade liberalization and domestic fertilizer use: Evidence from China-ASEAN free trade agreement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    10. Lin, Ying & Zhang, Daowei, 2017. "Incidence of Russian log export tax: A vertical log-lumber model," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(PB), pages 69-77.
    11. Pan, Wenqi & Chang, Wei-Yew & Wu, Ting & Zhang, Han & Ning, Zhuo & Yang, Hongqiang, 2021. "Impacts of the China-US trade restrictions on the global forest sector: A bilateral trade flow analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    13. Chen, Zhihua & An, Haizhong & An, Feng & Guan, Qing & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Structural risk evaluation of global gas trade by a network-based dynamics simulation model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 457-471.
    14. Li, Baihua & Li, Huajiao & Dong, Zhiliang & Lu, Yu & Liu, Nairong & Hao, Xiaoqing, 2021. "The global copper material trade network and risk evaluation: A industry chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    16. Ke, Shuifa & Qiao, Dan & Yuan, Wantong & He, Youjun, 2020. "Broadening the scope of forest transition inquiry: What does China's experience suggest?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    17. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    18. Wu, Hongmei & Wan, Lu & Tian, He & Chen, Zhifang & Zhang, Yian, 2021. "The ternary margins of China's forest products export and their determinants," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    19. Jackson, Matthew O. & Watts, Alison, 2002. "The Evolution of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 265-295, October.
    20. Zhang, Ying & Chen, Shuai, 2021. "Wood trade responses to ecological rehabilitation program: Evidence from China's new logging ban in natural forests," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    21. Liu, Shilei & Xia, Jun, 2021. "Forest harvesting restriction and forest restoration in China," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    22. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cappelli, Federica & Caravaggio, Nicola & Vaquero-Piñeiro, Cristina, 2022. "Buen Vivir and forest conservation in Bolivia: False promises or effective change?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    3. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
    4. Tomasz Serwach, 2022. "The European Union and within-country income inequalities. The case of the New Member States," Working Papers hal-03548416, HAL.
    5. Roy Cerqueti & Raffaella Coppier & Alessandro Girardi & Marco Ventura, 2022. "The sooner the better: lives saved by the lockdown during the COVID-19 outbreak. The case of Italy [Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 46-70.
    6. Nils Verheuvel & Joost Witteman & Marilou Vlaanderen, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method for Dutch Policy Evaluation," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 51-83, March.
    7. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 115373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Esteban Colla‐De‐Robertis & Rafael Garduno Rivera, 2021. "The effect of a free trade agreement with the United States on member countries' per capita GDP: A synthetic control analysis," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 1129-1145, August.
    9. Tianyuan Luo & Genti Kostandini, 2022. "Stringent immigration enforcement and responses of the immigrant‐intensive sector: Evidence from E‐Verify adoption in Arizona," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1411-1434, August.
    10. Masahiro Kato & Akari Ohda & Masaaki Imaizumi & Kenichiro McAlinn, 2023. "Synthetic Control Methods by Density Matching under Implicit Endogeneity," Papers 2307.11127, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    11. Alessandro Olper & Daniele Valenti & Valentina Raimondi & Daniele Curzi, 2023. "The EU enlargements treatment effect on agricultural policy," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 1134-1153, June.
    12. Campos, Nauro F. & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Franceschi, Emanuele, 2022. "Institutional integration and productivity growth: Evidence from the 1995 enlargement of the European Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Hannes Wallimann & Kevin Blattler & Widar von Arx, 2021. "Do price reductions attract customers in urban public transport? A synthetic control approach," Papers 2111.14613, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    14. McCloud, Nadine, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 98-134.
    15. Esaka, Taro & Fujii, Takao, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of the Tokyo Olympics on COVID-19 cases using synthetic control methods," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Daniel Aparicio-Pérez & Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2021. "Politics against Economics: The Case of Spanish Regional Financing," Working Papers 2021/15, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    17. Wallimann, Hannes & Blättler, Kevin & von Arx, Widar, 2023. "Do price reductions attract customers in urban public transport? A synthetic control approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Yu, Jisang & Ijaz, Arusha, 2023. "Recovering from Natural Disaster through Exports: The Case of 2010 Pakistan Flood and EU Tariff Waiver on Pakistan Textile Exports," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335710, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Zamani, Omid & Gunarathne, Anoma, 2022. "Could Genetic Improvement Policies Boost Milk Production in Senegal? A Synthetic Control Method," 62nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 7-9, 2022 329603, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    20. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:152:y:2023:i:c:s1389934123000692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.